’20 million Indians could lose their jobs’: Saurabh Mukherjea flags a middle class crisis

India is staring at a deepening middle-class jobs crisis—driven not by recession but by automation, AI, and global trade headwinds. Marcellus Investment Managers’ founder Saurabh Mukherjea warns the consequences could be devastating unless policymakers act swiftly.

In a recent podcast, Mukherjea painted a stark picture of the ongoing disruption in India’s white-collar job market. “We’re seeing a massive disruption in the job market,” he said. “Standard source middle-class jobs, like working in IT, banking, and media, will be replaced by a gig jobs ecosystem.”

He estimates it will take India two to three years to absorb the full impact, during which time a large swathe of salaried roles could vanish. “India will become a massive gig economy. It won’t just be rideshare and food delivery gigs. All our relatives will be part of the gig economy.”

The crisis, he adds, is not a result of economic slowdown. Instead, it is being driven by companies adopting AI to cut costs and boost efficiency. “Every company that we can see is replacing human beings with AI,” Mukherjea said. “Whether it’s banks in our portfolio, the media houses we speak to, or the IT services firms in China’s portfolios.”

Even advertising has turned synthetic. “The model in an ad is also AI. She’s not a real woman. She’s an AI model. Even the parrot in the ad isn’t real. It’s an AI parrot,” he said.

Adding to the strain is a ballooning household debt burden. According to Mukherjea, excluding home loans, Indian household debt stands at 33-34% of income—among the highest in the world. “The department has a burden, there’s so much debt, it will take time to repay it. So the consumption stimulus is helpful, but it’s not as easy as saying stimulus and the party will begin.”

Mukherjea also flagged external risks, particularly trade tensions with the United States. He warned that if President Trump does not roll back the tariffs, up to 20 million Indian jobs could be lost by Christmas.

“It is heartbreaking to see people earning ₹2–5 lakh a year lose their jobs, and companies that built export franchises over decades being punished,” he said. “Let’s hope and pray the Indian government and President Trump reach a free trade agreement soon.”