Will JetBlue Join Star Alliance?

JetBlue
Airways is reportedly exploring partnerships with various carriers, with indications pointing towards potential membership in the Star Alliance
. This move would offer JetBlue enhanced connectivity and access to a global network, benefiting both the airline and its passengers. Concurrently, rumors have surfaced about a possible merger between United Airlines
and JetBlue.

United has officially denied these claims, stating that it is not in discussions regarding a merger or acquisition with any airline. Industry analysts suggest that while a full merger is unlikely due to regulatory challenges, strategic partnerships or alliance memberships could be beneficial for JetBlue’s expansion and integration into global networks.

JetBlue’s Chief Executive Officer, Joanna Geraghty, responded to future networks or alliances, “…we’re having conversations with a number of carriers right now to discuss the potential for future partnerships.” JetBlue Q4 2024 Earnings Call by yahoo!Finance

JetBlue Airways Q4 2024 financial performance

According to Investopedia, in the fourth quarter of 2024, JetBlue Airways reported a net loss of $44 million, or 13 cents per share, which was narrower than analysts’ expectations of a 33-cent loss per share. The company’s revenue for the quarter was $2.27 billion, slightly surpassing the anticipated $2.25 billion. Despite these better-than-expected results, JetBlue’s stock experienced a significant decline, dropping over 20% in morning trading, as investors reacted to the company’s cautious outlook for the upcoming fiscal year.

Additionally, analysts have indicated JetBlue provided guidance that raised concerns among investors. For the first quarter of 2025, the airline expects available seat miles (ASM) to decline by 2% to 5% year-over-year, with revenue per ASM projected to range from a 0.5% decrease to a 3.5% increase. These projections fell short of analysts’ expectations, who had anticipated a 5% increase in revenue per ASM. Additionally, JetBlue forecasts an 8% to 10% rise in cost per ASM in the first quarter and a 5% to 7% increase for the full fiscal year. This outlook contributed to the sharp decline in the company’s stock price.

What is the Star Alliance network?

From Star Alliance, it is the world’s largest global airline network, founded in 1997. It consists of 25 member airlines that collaborate to provide seamless travel across a vast network of destinations. The alliance allows passengers to enjoy benefits such as code-sharing flights, shared airport lounges, priority services, and frequent flyer mile accumulation across member airlines. Star Alliance has over 50 global hubs in the world’s major cities, which allows members to seamlessly transition to their destinations using the airline partnerships under the network.

Some of the key member airlines include:

With over 1,200 destinations in nearly 200 countries, Star Alliance aims to enhance global connectivity and improve the travel experience for passengers through coordinated schedules and streamlined services.

Benefits of joining Star Alliance for JetBlue

JetBlue joining Star Alliance would have several potential benefits:

• Increased revenue and passenger traffic
• A new and enhanced loyalty program
• Expanded global connections
• Competitive position
• Additional operational efficiency

The seamless connections that Star Alliance would bring JetBlue would expand to an additional 1,200 destinations. This increase would drive revenue through the codeshare program and feeder traffic that Star Alliance offers its current partners. TrueBlue members would benefit from this partnership by earning and redeeming points across alliance airlines – some perks would be exclusive lounge access and priority services!

Operationally, shared airport facilities and maintenance resources would become available for the JetBlue fleet. This resource sharing could reduce costs. In an ever-competitive market, JetBlue would be in a position to challenge the oneworld
and SkyTeam
partnerships that include major airlines such as Delta Air Lines
, KLM
, American Airlines, and British Airways
.

Historical discussions of global partnerships for JetBlue

According to viewfromthewing.com, JetBlue has carried merger and airline partnerships in the past. Specifically, JetBlue and American Airlines
had planned a partnership under the oneworld
network. However, this was shut down in November 2024. From USAToday, the Northeast Alliance between American Airlines and JetBlue partnership for routes and revenue sharing would violate federal antitrust laws, which was affirmed in a US Appeals court in late 2024.

The discussions of a merger or partnership were first introduced in 2020 by the US Transportation Department. However, this alliance was blocked by the Justice Department with a suit blocking the two companies from operating under the NEA in 2021. This partnership is hopeful to be reinstated under the new administration of US President Donald Trump.

JetBlue’s current alliances and partnerships

Codeshare agreements through TrueBlue have allowed passengers to connect between JetBlue’s US networks and transatlantic flights. Offers particularly enhance traffic through London, Dublin, and Madrid. Additionally, TrueBlue includes connections that will get travelers to the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. Domestic and Latin American partnerships increased connections into the Interisland (Hawaii), the transpacific, and the Caribbean. While the TrueBlue partnership lacks the full alliance partnerships that Star Alliance, oneworld, or SkyTeam offers, its growing international partnerships provide a significant global reach.

Challenges and drawbacks of membership

If JetBlue were to join the Star Alliance, it could face several challenges and drawbacks. With a loss of independence and flexibility, JetBlue’s current operations would require realignment with the alliance policies and may reduce the company’s ability to negotiate unique deals that make the current TrueBlue network desirable.

As with most agreements to share networks and facilities, there could also be a rise in integration costs and initial complexity to operational requirements. Adapting JetBlue’s loyalty program to Star Alliance standards would require significant investment and technology integration – coordination of flight schedules, baggage handling, and codeshare agreements in the existing TrueBlue program with the 25 member airlines could become a big effort.

Joining Star Alliance could put JetBlue into a new competition bracket in regard to those pressures and market positioning. Route restrictions, revenue sharing agreements, and competition within Star Alliance, such as the case with United Airlines, may limit growth in strategic markets.

Impact on JetBlue’s competitiveness

Dependence on United Airlines, Star Alliance relies on this airline as the dominant company within the network – JetBlue in turn, could be limited in key markets to reduce the influence within the alliance. There is always the possibility of losing JetBlue’s unique brand identity as well. JetBlue has been a leader in customer-friendly, low-cost modeling, whereas joining Star Alliance’s full-service approach could minimize JetBlue’s traditional values and character.

Of note, the existing partnerships within TrueBlue could be at risk of potential conflicts. These higher costs and restrictions, membership fees, and operational adjustments could reduce the overall desire for existing partnerships to agree to a Star Alliance shift.

Regulatory and financial considerations

At times there is a lot of antitrust scrutiny associated with any major airline merger or alliance. Particularly in the US, the Department of Justice could review the Star Alliance membership for potential anti-competitive effects (e.g. the Northeast Alliance with American). Foreign ownership and control rules could also be in jeopardy given some Star Alliance carriers such as Singapore Airlines having partial state ownership – this would undoubtedly create complex regulatory hurdles for joint ventures.

Financial considerations such as higher membership costs, revenue sharing and profitability, fleet and service standardization, and impacting current partnerships are to be looked into further. The added fees for Star Alliance membership would be in part caused by IT infrastructure updating, marketing, and alignment to alliance requirements.

Participation in Star Alliance’s joint ventures and codeshare agreements would mean JetBlue could have the obligation of sharing revenue with other members, therefore impacting JetBlue’s already strained margins.

As for the realignment of fleet and service standardization, the expectation of JetBlue would be to increase their premium lounges, business class perks, as well as baggage handling to name a few to Star Alliance’s requirements. This increase could come at an operational cost.

Overall, there are equally many advantages and disadvantages to JetBlue joining the Star Alliance. With the most recent JetBlue earnings call and United’s statements making no indication of the two competitors becoming partners, it is difficult to say if the alliance would be possible at this time. Many would like to see JetBlue under the Star Alliance network in order to expand a traveler’s options and amenities, but others may see this as a possible regulatory affairs issue.

Is this going to happen? In short – not now. It is safe to say though that aviation enthusiasts and airline industry experts will pay close attention to the direction JetBlue chooses to go and look forward to things to come.