EVs Take 65.7% Share In Sweden – Slowing Transition

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October saw plugin EVs take 65.7% share in Sweden, up from 62.2% year-on-year. BEV share grew marginally YoY, while PHEV share increased. Overall auto volume was 24,078 units, down 4% YoY. The Volvo EX40 was the best-selling BEV in October.

October’s auto sales saw combined plugin EVs take 65.7% share in Sweden, with full battery-electrics (BEVs) at 36.2% and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) at 29.5%. These shares compare YoY against 62.2% combined, 35.1% BEV and 27.1% PHEV.

The slow pace of the transition continues in Sweden, with YTD BEV volumes (80,973 units) slightly up from a year ago, though still ~10% below where they were at this point in 2023. PHEVs have grown steadily over the period, but this is no substitute for growth in BEVs.

There is faint talk about Sweden possibly re-introducing a targeted BEV incentive scheme in early 2026, limited to lower income households in rural areas, but this is still under discussion and subject to EU funding.

Combustion-only powertrains are still stubbornly clinging on above 20% market share (23% in October).

Best-Selling BEVs

As has become the norm recently, the Volvo EX40 was the best-selling BEV in October, with 1,106 units. This is its fourth pole in the past six months, only interrupted by quarterly pushes of the Tesla Model Y.

In second place was the Volkswagen ID.7, with 736 units, and in third, the Kia EV3 with 593 units.

There were few surprises in the top 10, with just the Mercedes EQB seeing an all-time personal best volume of 221 units. This is likely because of discounts available on the end-of-the-line outgoing model (including discount lease packages), before the significantly revised version arrives in 2026.

Further back, the Cupra Born has recovered to a healthy rank (12th), after having a quiet time in recent months.

Most impressive was the new Kia EV4, which entered the top 20 in just its second month on sale, with 151 units and 19th spot.

Just outside the top 20, in 25th, the new Mercedes CLA only slightly improved on its September volume (124 vs. 119 units). Has it already hit its plateau, or can it climb higher from here?

The new Renault 4 is also just treading water (for now), with 42 units in October, down from 51 units in September. There were no new model debuts in October.

Let’s check the 3-month chart:

The Volvo EX40 maintains a commanding lead, and it will be a close call between the Volvo and the Tesla Model Y (currently in third) to win the full-year race, assuming Tesla does its normal December push.

The Volkswagen ID.5 had a big lead in early 2025, but has lately seen significantly lower volumes than the EX40, and has been recently coming second or third in these trailing 3-month charts. In the full year race, although the Volkswagen is still fractionally ahead based on its early lead, the Volvo is now moving much faster and is about to overtake permanently.

None of the recent new arrivals have yet entered the top 20, but based on its early form, the Kia EV4 should achieve this in the coming months.

The Renault 5 is still just inside the top 20, though seasonality (applicable to a small hatchback in snowy Sweden) might now be dampening its sales until the spring time. The Zeekr 7x appears to have settled into a pattern of around 100 units per month, just outside the top 20.

Outlook

The BEV slowdown in Sweden is frustrating. At this point, a ZEV mandate (of the kind seen in the UK) might help the transition. Decent sales of PHEVs are all well and good, but are not a substitute for BEV growth.

The Swedish macroeconomy saw a recent upswing, with Q3 2025 recording 2.4% YoY GDP growth, up from 1.4% in Q2. How sustainable the upswing is, remains to be seen. Headline inflation has recently been re-calculated, to 0.9%, now flat over the past two months. Interest rates have been flat at 1.75% since late September. Manufacturing PMI slowed slightly to 55.1 points in October, from 55.6 points in September.

What’s next for the EV transition in Sweden? Will the under-discussion 2026 new incentive scheme make much difference (if it happens)? What might make a difference at this stage? Please share your comments and thoughts in the discussion below.