Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports should see its usual end-of-year slowdown in November and December, since retailers have apparently coped with U.S. tariff uncertainty by stocking most of the holiday merchandise they need in stores or warehouses instead of waiting for last-minute imports, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“We’ve spent most of the year worried about the impact of tariffs on both inflation and the supply chain but the holiday season is here and mitigation efforts appear to have paid off,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release. “Store shelves are well stocked and the effect on prices has been minimized, largely thanks to retailers taking steps like frontloading imports during times of low or delayed tariff increases or absorbing the costs themselves.”
While those strategies have worked so far, trade war uncertainty continues. The NRF and Hackett report noted that a 20% “fentanyl” tariff on China was reduced this week to 10% and a twice-delayed significant increase in “reciprocal” tariffs on China that were set to take effect yesterday has been delayed for a year. An existing 10% reciprocal tariff on China imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) remains in place, but the Supreme Court heard arguments last week on the legality of those tariffs.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said on-again, off-again tariff policy has made long-term planning difficult for importers and ocean carriers alike. “These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain,” Hackett said. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026.”
By the numbers, U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.1 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in September, the latest month for which final data is available. That was down 9.3% from August and down 7.4% year over year. Ports have not yet reported numbers for October, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.99 million TEU, down 11.5% year over year. November is forecast at 1.85 million TEU, down 14.4% year over year, and December is forecast at 1.75 million TEU, down 17.9%.
The full year of 2025 is forecast to total 24.9 million TEU, down 2.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024. But the new year could be much lower—January 2026 is forecast at 1.98 million TEU, down 11.1% year over year; February at 1.85 million TEU, down 9%, and March at 1.79 million TEU, down 16.7%.
