FTR: U.S. trailer orders warmed in October, but remain at less than half of 10-year average
U.S. trailer net orders climbed 77% in October over the previous month, but that steep growth still left it mired 5% below year-ago levels and at less than half of the 10-year October average, according to a report from transportation industry analyst firm FTR.
The sharp month-over-month rebound points to renewed fleet engagement and fewer cancellations, but the industry overall continues to be hamstrung by soft freight demand, weak profitability, elevated input costs, and persistent uncertainty over trade policy and macroeconomic conditions, FTR said.
By the numbers, October trailer orders reached 15,916 units, which compares to the 10-year October average of 37,116 units. Cancellations eased to just above 5%, suggesting some stabilization. However, many fleets remain cautious and are postponing 2026 commitments until market conditions and pricing visibility improve. The modest year-over-year (y/y) decline underscores that ordering behavior is still primarily replacement-driven with limited evidence of fleets adding growth capacity.
For 2025 to date, net trailer orders total 135,525 units, up 18% y/y. This increase primarily reflects backloaded demand following the November 2024 election, which pushed activity into the first quarter of 2025 that normally would have occurred in late 2024. Despite that weak start to the 2025 order cycle, the early read on the 2026 order season is even softer. Cumulative orders for September and October combined are down 15% y/y to 24,917 units as multiple market headwinds weigh on fleet sentiment.
“The U.S. trailer market continues to experience meaningful pressure from volatile trade policy, elevated material costs, and weakening fleet sentiment. Although a Supreme Court ruling could eliminate country-specific tariffs depending on the outcome, the main tariff cost for the trailer industry comes from the 50% Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper that will be unaffected,” Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst, commercial vehicles, said in a release.
“OEMs and suppliers are adjusting to higher costs and softer demand through selective price increases, tighter cost controls, and sourcing shifts. Fleets are extending equipment life cycles, prioritizing maintenance, and limiting new capital commitments as elevated costs and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on near-term trailer demand,” Moyer said.
