A huge boom of infrastructure investment for artificial intelligence (AI) has counterbalanced a year defined by “extraordinary macroeconomic uncertainty,” helping the U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) sector to enter 2026 with renewed momentum, clearer visibility, and growing optimism across both leasing and the capital markets landscape, according to a report from Cushman & Wakefield.
Despite uncertain tariffs, a volatile policy backdrop, tightening immigration flows, and episodes of financial market stress in 2025, the U.S. economy proved far more resilient than expected. Real GDP growth is projected at 1.9% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, buoyed heavily by the acceleration of AI-driven investment, which accounted for more than half of all GDP growth in 2025.
“As we head into 2026, the tone has shifted meaningfully,” Kevin Thorpe, chief economist at Cushman & Wakefield, said in a release. “There is still risk on both sides of the outlook, but we’ve moved past the peak levels of uncertainty, and confidence in the CRE sector is building. Capital is flowing again, interest rates are moving lower, and leasing fundamentals are generally stabilizing or improving. If 2025 was a test of resilience, 2026 has real potential to reward it.”
In the industrial sector, which includes factories and warehouses, demand picked up in late 2025 as trade-policy uncertainty eased, allowing tenants to move forward with delayed decisions, the report said. E-commerce continues to drive leasing, boosting forecasts for 2026-2027. And with development of new properties slowing, vacancy will stabilize next year and begin tightening in 2027.
Longer term, Cushman & Wakefield’s baseline scenario, with a 50% probability, foresees continued economic expansion, gradually easing inflation, and a more supportive policy environment as tariff-related adjustments stabilize and the Fed lowers interest rates toward a neutral 3% by late 2026.
“Commercial real estate has already gone through a major price correction, and we are just now emerging from it,” James Bohnaker, principal economist at Cushman & Wakefield, said. “The sector is not overbuilding heading into next year, and if anything, we are underbuilding in certain areas, which will help support the fundamentals under most economic scenarios. CRE is now fairly priced, and that will likely attract even more capital as investors rebalance their portfolios and expand exposure to real estate.”
