Globalization remains at a historically high level, despite escalating geopolitical tensions, rising U.S. tariffs, and unprecedented uncertainty about future trade policies, according to DHL.
The findings come from the “DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026,” released today by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business. The report tracks globalization on a scale from 0% (no cross-border flows) to 100% (borders and distance have no impact). By that yardstick, the world’s level of globalization was 25% in 2025, in line with the record high set in 2022.
“Globalization is holding its ground – and that alone speaks volumes about its value,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. “From poverty to climate change, the world’s biggest challenges can only be solved through global thinking. The DHL Global Connectedness Report shows that countries and companies are not retreating behind national borders. That is good news.”
Global trade grew faster in 2025 than in any year since 2017, excluding the volatile Covid-19 period. U.S. importers initially accelerated shipments early in the year ahead of White House tariff threats, before dropping below prior-year levels. But rising Chinese exports to non-U.S. markets helped sustain global trade volumes, the study showed.
Part of that volume was due to the historic boom in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investment, as trade in AI-related products drove a whopping 42% of goods trade growth in the first three quarters of 2025, according to WTO figures.
Looking ahead, recent U.S. tariff increases are expected to modestly slow trade growth in 2026. But despite that hindrance, global goods trade is projected to expand by an average of 2.6% per year through 2029, in line with the past decade.
One reason trade can keep growing despite U.S. tariff hikes is that most trade does not involve the U.S. In 2025, 13% of imports went to the U.S., and 9% of exports came from the U.S. In addition, many countries are pursuing new trade agreements to secure access to alternative markets.
Even as the U.S. and China decouple, most countries continue to engage with their longstanding partners. Over the past decade, only 4–6% of global goods trade, greenfield FDI, and cross-border M&A have shifted away from geopolitical rivals. Of these flows, most have not moved to close allies but to countries with flexible geopolitical positions, such as India and Vietnam. Overall, the world economy remains far from a broad split into rival blocs.
“The politics and policy surrounding globalization are much more volatile than the actual flows between countries,” said Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management. “Global trade patterns changed more in 2025 than they do in a typical year, but less than they did during other recent disruptions such as the early stages of the war in Ukraine. Sound decision-making requires a calibrated view of how much global business ties are really changing. The risks to globalization are real, but so is the resilience of global flows.”
