Will The Pitt dominate? Can Widow’s Bay break through? Will Love Story lead the limited series pack?
Photo-Illustration: Vulture; Photos: Apple TV, FX, HBO, Netflix
At long last, next Wednesday’s Emmy nominations will answer some of our most urgent questions. Just how popular has The Pitt gotten in the year since it took home Best Drama? Was Apple TV’s Widow’s Bay able to reach enough voters in time to capitalize on the overwhelming word-of-mouth enthusiasm? Will the final season of Hacks result in a Schitt’s Creek–style send-off sweep? Will Emmy voters cotton to new shows like Pluribus and Margo’s Got Money Troubles? Will returning shows like Euphoria and The Comeback retain their old Emmys bona fides?
Trying to anticipate these answers is the task of the humble Emmys prognosticator. But TV Academy voters are not such mysterious creatures. They like the shows and performers they’ve already told us they like, and this year’s nominating ballot was filled with old faves, from Vince Gilligan to actors like Jon Hamm, Allison Janney, and Colman Domingo. My calculus involves combining the voters’ track record with the TV Academy’s historical stubbornness to acknowledge certain shows and performers that are most visible in the cultural conversation. Sometimes that’s easy: Love Story’s Soho-style revival was a steady reminder that regardless of viewership, the FX show had permeated the cultural imagination in a way that, say, Taylor Sheridan’s The Madison did not.
And sometimes it’s guessing. Let’s not kid ourselves.
We’re going to have plenty of time to dig in to The Pitt’s Emmys odds in the post-nomination phase, so let’s assume that’s a lock and move on to what is a subtly fascinating race for the remaining seven slots. Due to extended breaks between seasons — exacerbated by the 2023 strikes — we have eight shows that were Outstanding Drama Series nominees for their previous (full) seasons. Euphoria and Stranger Things were last nominated in 2022, The Gilded Age, The Morning Show, and Fallout were nominees in 2024, and The Diplomat, Paradise, and Slow Horses were nominated last year. With brand-new shows with good-to-great reviews and rock-solid pedigrees like A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, Pluribus, Task, and The Testaments looking to join the party, several of those previous nominees are going to have to be cast aside.
Of the returning nominees, I’m most secure in predicting Slow Horses, which has been nominated two years in a row and has really mastered the art of the quick-and-satisfying six-episode season, and The Diplomat, which has somehow managed to transform the destabilizing churn of international diplomacy into a sturdy, almost procedural workplace drama.
Even though I worry that Pluribus was a bit too overindexed by the professional TV-watching class (hello!) and has yet to find a spot near the watercooler, it’s still an exceptionally well-made show with big ideas from Emmys darling Vince Gilligan. It’s in. Elsewhere, the dystopia of Hulu’s Paradise feels a bit fresher than the dystopia of Hulu’s The Testaments, though I’ve gone broke betting against the Handmaid’s Tale industrial complex before.
The Morning Show really fell off a cliff this year despite Oscar winner Marion Cotillard’s ludicrous line readings, so the final three available slots will go to HBO (or HBO Max) shows. I still don’t think anyone actually likes Euphoria, but it’s big and expensive and full of movie stars, and at this moment in time Hollywood needs all three of those things to remain viable. A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms is trying to repeat the House of the Dragon Drama Series nomination it got for its initial season in 2023; Knight was better reviewed overall, but its comedic tone and short episodes could make it appear more slight to voters. Task comes from Mare of Easttown creator Brad Ingelsby but was never able to match Mare’s cultural cachet. The Gilded Age is buried too far back in summer 2025 to garner enough votes.
But I have to pick one of them. Or do I? What if instead I do the one thing I swore never to do: predict that this is finally Industry’s year? I’m a firm believer that Emmy voters like what they like and rarely come around on shows they’ve repeatedly ignored, but a late honor is not unprecedented. Friday Night Lights didn’t get an Outstanding Drama Series nomination until its fifth and final season. The Americans didn’t break through into major Emmys nominations until its fourth season. After speaking to a handful of Emmy voters last week, I was surprised with how many of them were determined to vote for Industry despite not thinking it would get nominated. That’s the stuff Emmys upsets are made of.
Predicted nominees:
The Pitt (HBO Max)
Pluribus (Apple TV)
Slow Horses (Apple TV)
The Diplomat (Netflix)
Paradise (Hulu)
Euphoria (HBO)
Task (HBO)
Industry (HBO)
Possible Spoiler: The Testaments (Hulu)
I’m Probably Underestimating: The Gilded Age (HBO)
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms (HBO)
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: The Boroughs (Netflix)
Defending champ Noah Wyle is a lock here, and I’d be very surprised to see Gary Oldman break his two-year Slow Horses nomination streak. The field becomes both very competitive and very shallow after that, with only a handful of contenders who feel truly plausible. If the final season of The Boys had been better received, I’d say the time would be ripe for an “Antony Starr, at last” surprise nomination, but alas.
Part of me really wants to nominate Rufus Sewell, who’s been expertly toeing the line between vainglorious and treacherous for three seasons of The Diplomat, but I wonder if the size of his part (it’s really on the lead/supporting borderline) and sleaziness of his character won’t keep some voters at bay.
If the voters are eager to welcome new blood into the category, they could get onboard with A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms’s Peter Claffey. After the loud chorus of disappointed voices that greeted the Game of Thrones finale, and House of the Dragon not eligible again until next year, it would be nice for the Emmys to recognize that the GRRM-iverse is good again.
Still, the three remaining nominations will come down to actors the Emmy voters have historically appreciated. Sterling K. Brown’s 12 career nominations and three wins are all the reasons to predict him that I need. Walton Goggins was nominated in this category two years ago for Fallout, and there’s every chance that Emmy voters will be as enamored of him this year as well; his nomination for The White Lotus last year is only further proof that Emmy voters dig his vibe. But the second season of Fallout came and went with nary a whisper of buzz, and I think that makes him vulnerable to the likes of Task’s Mark Ruffalo, who won Lead Actor in a Limited Series during the 2020 COVID Emmys for the well-reviewed stone-cold bummer I Know This Much Is True.
The wild card is Jon Hamm, an 18-time Emmy nominee (he won for Mad Men in 2015) who’s up for consideration for Your Friends and Neighbors, which as of last month was Apple TV’s most-viewed original series. Somebody’s getting this nomination, and voters rarely seem to be able to resist Jon Hamm.
Predicted nominees:
Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Mark Ruffalo, Task
Jon Hamm, Your Friends and Neighbors
Possible Spoiler: Rufus Sewell, The Diplomat
I’m Probably Underestimating: Walton Goggins, Fallout
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Peter Claffey, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Antony Starr, The Boys
Last year’s winner, Britt Lower (Severance), isn’t eligible, which you’d think would be good news for Matlock’s Kathy Bates, who was widely predicted to win before Lower’s upset. Too bad for Kathy — and for Keri Russell, who’s likely to receive her third Lead Actress nomination for The Diplomat — that this year features the return of two-time winner and giant movie star Zendaya. It was never a question that Zendaya was the reason to stick with the show, and given her final arc, it’s easy to imagine Emmy voters closing the loop with a third Zendaya win.
Then there’s Rhea Seehorn, who was the cause célèbre for TV critics and Better Call Saul fans for years despite being repeatedly passed over for Emmy nominations. (She was finally recognized with noms in 2022 and 2023.) She’s a wonder in Pluribus, a show that repeatedly clears the deck for her performance as Carol, who rages and mourns and comes to some uncomfortable truths all on her own.
The fifth nomination will see some competition from former nominees Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age) and Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show). Coon is an especially strong contender, having been nominated for her turn as Bertha Russell in 2024 and since then having earned another Emmy nod for The White Lotus last year and a Tony nomination for Bug earlier this spring. But that kind of deep industry respect isn’t always a match for the lightning-in-a-bottle appeal of emerging talent. Chase Infiniti narrowly missed an Oscar nomination earlier this year for One Battle After Another, but her star had already been born, and she now stands as the best chance for The Testaments to score a major nomination.
Predicted nominees:
Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus
Zendaya, Euphoria
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Kathy Bates, Matlock
Chase Infiniti, The Testaments
Possible Spoiler: Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age
I’m Probably Underestimating: Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Myha’la, Industry
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Kristin Scott Thomas, Slow Horses
After The Pitt received one nomination only across both supporting acting categories last year (Katherine LaNasa, who won), it’s widely suspected that Emmy voters, given another season to familiarize themselves with the cast, will go all in on The Pitt. Five cast members are submitted in Outstanding Supporting Actor, including last year’s Guest Actor Shawn Hatosy, who appeared in only six out of 15 episodes in season two and thus could have remained in Guest. Instead he chose to level up to Supporting, where he’ll likely be nominated alongside co-stars Patrick Ball as the prodigal hotshot Dr. Langdon and Gerran Howell as a more confident Dr. Whitaker.
The other five nominees are likely to come from one or more of the other Outstanding Drama Series nominees:
• Slow Horses’s Jack Lowden, a 2024 nominee, got squeezed out by the glut of Severance and White Lotus nominees last year.
• The Diplomat has Ato Essandoh as Keri Russell’s ever-loyal deputy and Rory Kinnear as the smirky, utterly infuriating U.K. prime minister.
• Pluribus’s Carlos-Manuel Vesga had whole swaths of the season’s narrative all to himself. When his Manousos finally caught up to Carol, he and Seehorn engaged in a tense battle of wills.
• Tom Pelphrey, a 2022 Guest Actor in a Drama nominee for his acclaimed performance on Ozark, gives Task’s perhaps most tragically affecting arc.
• Industry’s best bet for its first-ever acting nomination is Ken Leung, whose anguished swan song is primo awards bait.
• Euphoria is obviously going to try to ride the tailwinds of Jacob Elordi’s recent Oscar nomination to a carry-over nod for his performance as Nate Jacobs, who experiences an anguished swan song of his own.
• Hell, throw in The Gilded Age’s beloved Clock Twink, Ben Ahlers, recently the beneficiary of a profile-raising Broadway run in Death of a Salesman.
Most of these men would be first-time Emmy nominees and could — if things break just right — contribute to the first class of all first-time Supporting Actor in a Drama nominees since 1966. But tell that to Billy Crudup, still giving the best performance on The Morning Show, and the one cast member I think stands a decent shot at getting another nomination.
Predicted nominees:
Patrick Ball, The Pitt
Shawn Hatosy, The Pitt
Carlos-Manuel Vesga, Pluribus
Tom Pelphrey, Task
Gerran Howell, The Pitt
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
Possible Spoiler: Jacob Elordi, Euphoria
I’m Probably Underestimating: Ken Leung, Industry
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Ben Ahlers, The Gilded Age
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Rory Kinnear, The Diplomat
This category promises to be even more packed with Pitt nominees than Supporting Actor. Defending champion Katherine LaNasa is all but assured a return nomination and will likely be the heavy favorite to win given how much Nurse Dana was pushed to the forefront in season two. I expected Taylor Dearden to join LaNasa last year, and I’ll be doubly surprised if she doesn’t make that leap this year as The Pitt’s deposition-plagued Dr. Mel King. The third Pitt actress I’d be shocked not to see get nominated is Isa Briones, who continued to stand out this season as the prickly Dr. Santos.
My guess is there’s room for one or two more Pitt actresses in this field of seven. Sepideh Moafi was highly featured all season as the ER’s new attending, Dr. Al-Hashimi. If clashing with Dr. Robby will benefit LaNasa’s case, as I expect it will, that ought to benefit Moafi’s case as well — though Al-Hashimi is not always presented as sympathetically. If Emmy voters want to express solidarity with a departing cast member, they could throw some votes for Supriya Ganesh’s turn as the overstressed Dr. Mohan. But my guess is the voters will go for the most easily lovable character and vote in Shabana Azeez, whose Dr. Javadi played the ER’s TikTok-literate Gen-Z avatar.
Four or five Pitt actresses don’t leave much room for anyone else. Particularly when one of those slots would seemingly have to go to Karolina Wydra, who pulled off such a tricky tonal balance as Zosia (and all of humanity, really) on Pluribus. Then again, I expected Allison Janney to pick up a nomination for The Diplomat last year, because, well, when does she not? But appearing in only two episodes and gunning for a Supporting Actress nomination was perhaps more hubris than Emmy voters were interested in. This year, however, Janney’s President Grace Penn was present throughout the season and more multidimensional, too.
Otherwise, Julianne Nicholson is the only other returning nominee from last year, and if voters kept up with Paradise this spring, she stands a good shot at a repeat nod. It’s worth mentioning that Sydney Sweeney is also a returning nominee, having made the nomination list for her Euphoria performance in 2022. Her Cassie was even more central to the season’s narrative this time around, and she’s also evolved into a major movie star. Finally, I should flag that this is Emmy voters’ last chance to recognize Stranger Things, something they’ve done periodically over the years, though their enthusiasm has waned lately. Sadie Sink would be the logical standout, given her crossing over to both movies and Broadway stardom, even if I’d prefer an overdue nod to Maya Hawke.
Predicted nominees:
Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt
Karolina Wydra, Pluribus
Isa Briones, The Pitt
Taylor Dearden, The Pitt
Allison Janney, The Diplomat
Julianne Nicholson, Paradise
Shabana Azeez, The Pitt
Possible Spoiler: Sepideh Moafi, The Pitt
I’m Probably Underestimating: Sydney Sweeney, Euphoria
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Marisa Abela, Industry
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Maya Hawke, Stranger Things
Unlike the dramas, TV’s top comedies don’t take multiple years between seasons, so their year-to-year Emmys consistency has been strong. Hacks, Abbott Elementary, Only Murders in the Building, and The Bear have been the core of this category for the last four years. It’s tempting to predict a divisive show like The Bear or an increasingly un-buzzy series like Only Murders to fall off this year, but eight slots means that’s unlikely. I’d definitely rank a few of them behind Apple TV’s Shrinking, which in its third season has become Apple TV’s most favored original comedy, if we’re to go by how aggressively Apple has campaigned it for awards. I’d also rank The Comeback as a fairly likely nominee, considering how the show’s legend has only grown over the two decades since its initial season, not to mention how directly this final season took on the threat of AI to the TV industry in particular.
While a handful of shows that had previously been nominated in this category are in contention again — Netflix’s Nobody Wants This and Wednesday, Apple’s Palm Royale, and Prime Video’s Jury Duty — I’m far more interested in how the new series perform. HBO’s Rooster boasted big viewership numbers and slots very comfortably into a Ted Lasso–esque niche of Emmys-friendly taste; the question is whether Emmy voters already have a Ted Lasso–esque show at home in Shrinking. By all rights, NBC’s The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins should be assuming the mantle that 30 Rock (or at the very least Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) left vacant, but it’s looking more and more like a long shot.
Apple TV entered into Emmys season gunning hard for Margo’s Got Money Troubles and its starry ensemble. (Elle Fanning! Nick Offerman! Michelle Pfeiffer and Nicole Kidman, somehow!) While it still makes a formidable case as a show that Speaks to Today’s Hard Times, there’s no doubt that in the past month it’s been completely overshadowed by the sudden and loud support for Widow’s Bay. To my eye, the only thing standing between Widow’s Bay and a boatload of nominations is whether or not Emmy voters watched it in time, but with eight nominees, Outstanding Comedy Series might be its easiest point of entry.
Predicted nominees:
Hacks (HBO Max)
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Shrinking (Apple TV)
The Comeback (HBO)
Widow’s Bay (Apple TV)
Margo’s Got Money Troubles (Apple TV)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
The Bear (FX)
Possible Spoiler: The Comeback (HBO)
I’m Probably Underestimating: Nobody Wants This (Netflix)
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins (NBC)
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Platonic (Apple TV)
Martin Short has been nominated for all four previous seasons of Only Murders in the Building, while Steve Martin has been nominated only twice. I love Martin Short, but make that make sense. Regardless, the Emmy voters have made their preference known, and Short is probably the most secure of the potential nominees. Of last year’s nominees in this category, only the winner — The Studio’s Seth Rogen — isn’t eligible again. This puts Short, Shrinking’s Jason Segel, The Bear’s Jeremy Allen White, and Nobody Wants This’s Adam Brody in the driver’s seat(s) for four of the five nominations.
In terms of who’s most likely to join them, there is Steve Carell, a ten-time Emmy nominee who has somehow never won (Lucci alert!), who anchors Rooster’s cross-generational campus conflicts with a welcome gentle befuddlement. But he’s not the only Emmys fave repping a new series, as five-time nominee Matthew Rhys (he won in 2018 for The Americans) could barnstorm this category all the way to a win for Widow’s Bay.
Beyond the above-named seven, we’re looking at long shots. Tim Robinson in HBO’s Tim Robinson–y comedy The Chair Company feels like this year’s version of Nathan Fielder/The Rehearsal fool’s gold last year. Would be cool if that happened! Probably won’t happen. Also while we’re talking about Emmys futility, how about marinating in the fact that Tracy Morgan was only ever nominated once for 30 Rock? He’s more than deserving for playing the titular disgraced football star in Reggie Dinkins, and I don’t even care if he’s just doing shades of Tracy Jordan. They’re good shades!
Predicted nominees:
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Matthew Rhys, Widow’s Bay
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Steve Carell, Rooster
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Possible Spoiler: Tracy Morgan, The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
I’m Probably Underestimating: Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building (me, I am people)
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Tim Robinson, The Chair Company
The only thing standing between Jean Smart and a fifth Emmy for Hacks is Lisa Kudrow and the possibility of her first Emmy for The Comeback (she won in 1998 for Friends). Those two are locked for nominations, and we’ll deal with their battle as September approaches. Both Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) and Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) have been fixtures in this category for years, and while I expect The Bear to continue to fall off as an Emmys player for its poorly reviewed fourth season, I think Edebiri’s performance is enough for her to hold on.
She’ll have to fend off a pair of former nominees in Kristen Bell (looking to repeat last year’s nomination for Nobody Wants This) and Jenna Ortega for Wednesday. As with many of Netflix’s returning series this year, including the charming Ted Danson comedy A Man on the Inside and the Tina Fey–led ensemble comedy The Four Seasons, Wednesday and Nobody Wants This were met with conspicuous silence from the culture at large. Yet both Bell and Ortega picked up Golden Globe nominations, with Bell getting a Critics Choice nod and Ortega getting an Actor Awards nomination. Enthusiasm is there for it … somewhere.
There’s less precedent for a show like The Hunting Wives fitting into the Comedy categories. Hour-long, soapy lunacy hasn’t really worked since Desperate Housewives, and the fact that Malin Akerman and Brittany Snow will likely split each other’s votes doesn’t help either. The most likely contender to bust up the parade of repeat nominations is Elle Fanning as the title character in Apple TV’s Margo’s Got Money Troubles. Back in the aughts, Showtime had a field day in this category with the stars of half-hour dramedies like Nurse Jackie, United States of Tara, and Weeds playing women who, while you were in high school, they were in Queens/Kansas/Agrestic, trying to make it in this economy. Fanning — a 2022 nominee for The Great — seems very clearly to be the heir apparent to the Edie Falcos, Toni Collettes, and Mary-Louise Parkers who came before her.
Predicted nominees:
Jean Smart, Hacks
Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Elle Fanning, Margo’s Got Money Troubles
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Possible Spoiler: Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
I’m Probably Underestimating: Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Malin Akerman, The Hunting Wives
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Taylor Ortega, Big Mistakes
This is a category with a deep bench and a defending champion (Jeff Hiller for Somebody Somewhere) who is eligible for his much-smaller but still excellent role on Widow’s Bay, so the potential for chaos is high. Five of the six men who Hiller defeated last year are back, including The Four Seasons’s Colman Domingo, and also Bowen Yang, who is eligible for a season of Saturday Night Live he left midway through. Not sure if that will or even should matter to Emmy voters, but I do think sooner or later that torch is getting passed to Marcello Hernández, and I’m betting it’s sooner.
Shrinking stars Harrison Ford and Michael Urie are both likely to repeat their nominations from last year, and given their material and talent, I’d put them both at the top of the list of most likely to win. Their biggest competitor could be someone who got snubbed of a nomination last year: Hacks’s Paul W. Downs. If this year’s comedy categories turn into a valediction for Hacks, Downs’s story line of Jimmy fighting for the integrity of, you know, being a talent manager or whatever could pay off. If the voters really go all in on Hacks, we might even see the return of Carl Clemons-Hopkins, last nominated in 2021. Downs’s Jimmy pretty much usurped Clemons-Hopkins’s Marcus as the show’s primary male character, but Marcus had a bit of a resurgence in the final season.
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, a two-time winner here in 2023 and 2024, will likely be nominated again for The Bear. Three-time nominee Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary) got bumped from the category last year and could again.
Depending on how enthusiastically the Emmy voters go for Widow’s Bay, Stephen Root would make for a pleasant surprise as a seventh nominee (Root’s only Emmy nomination came in 2019 for Barry). Nick Offerman’s got a more dynamic and outwardly emotional role as the pro-wrestler dad on Margo’s Got Money Troubles. Since making it through the entirety of Parks and Recreation without getting a single Emmy nom, Offerman’s been nominated four times (thrice for hosting Making It and winning once for his guest turn on The Last of Us); it seems like Emmy voters are determined to spend the rest of his career making it up to him.
Predicted nominees:
Michael Urie, Shrinking
Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Paul W. Downs, Hacks
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Marcello Hernández, Saturday Night Live
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
Stephen Root, Widow’s Bay
Possible Spoiler: Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons
I’m Probably Underestimating: Nick Offerman, Margo’s Got Money Troubles
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Carl Clemons-Hopkins, Hacks
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Daniel Radcliffe, The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
It took until the show’s fourth season, but Hannah Einbinder finally won Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy last year for her co-lead performance as Hacks’s Ava. Now I’d imagine it would take an act of God to keep her from repeating that win in September. Lock her in, lock in Jessica Williams, the only Shrinking supporting performer to have been nominated for both of the show’s previous seasons; and lock in Michelle Pfeiffer, who did her husband, David E. Kelley, the supreme favor of playing Elle Fanning’s desperately tacky mother on Margo’s Got Money Troubles.
Sheryl Lee Ralph and Janelle James have been nominated as a pair for every year of Abbott Elementary’s existence. To pull that off for the fifth year in a row would be the first time that two co-stars have been nominated together for five years in a row since Modern Family’s Ty Burrell and Jesse Tyler Ferguson from 2010–14, the first time two actresses have pulled that feat off since Cagney & Lacey’s Sharon Gless and Tyne Daly from 1983–88 (six years!), and the first time it’s happened in Supporting Actress in a Comedy ever. We are rooting for them!
We’re also rooting for Kate O’Flynn, Widow’s Bay’s incomparable Patricia, who was hands down the supporting actress performance of the year, and who needs enough voters to have sampled Widow’s Bay and gotten at least to the sunset-cocktails episode in order to have a shot.
I’m on the fence as to whether I think Liza Colón-Zayas is going to make it for The Bear. She’s been nominated the past two seasons, winning in 2024, but I think The Bear’s waning popularity hurts her in such a crowded field. That said, the Emmys did pick her to read the nominations on Wednesday morning. Would they really do that just to have her be disappointed?
Among the contenders looking to score their first Emmy nominations are Shrinking’s Christa Miller (all that time married to Bill Lawrence and he’s never gotten her an acting nomination??), Rooster’s Danielle Deadwyler and Annie Mumolo, The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins’s Erika Alexander, Saturday Night Live’s Ashley Padilla, and Hacks’s Megan Stalter. Padilla is an intriguing possibility as the breakout star of SNL’s 51st season, though I think she’s still probably a year away from enough voters getting onboard. I predicted a Stalter nomination last year and got burned, but I remain ever vigilant: It would be the canary in the coal mine of a massive Hacks awards haul this year, even though I’d cast my vote for her co-star Robby Hoffman instead. (Hoffman was nominated in Guest Actress for Hacks last year, so there’s a precedent for voters’ support.)
And then there’s Laurie Metcalf, whose recent Tony win was another reminder that awards voters are powerless to resist her. Netflix’s Big Mistakes may be teetering on the outer rim of Emmy contention, but she’s the show’s most likely nominee, playing a mom whose dials for “neurotic” and “overbearing” are cranked up well past ten.
Predicted nominees:
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Michelle Pfeiffer, Margo’s Got Money Troubles
Kate O’Flynn, Widow’s Bay
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear
Possible Spoiler: Megan Stalter, Hacks
I’m Probably Underestimating: Laurie Metcalf, Big Mistakes
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Ashley Padilla, Saturday Night Live
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Erika Alexander, The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
As I discussed with the Vulture TV critics last week, the relative lack of a Zeitgeist-capturing limited series this year makes for a pretty interesting competition. Netflix’s Beef is probably not going to run the table the way it did in 2023, nor is Richard Gadd going to sweep with Half Man like he did Baby Reindeer. But both shows are more than solid bets. The pre-Emmys awards givers at the Gothams and Television Critics Association both singled out HBO’s DTF St. Louis for recognition, which doesn’t exactly guarantee the Emmys will follow suit (oh the laundry list of TCA faves that the Emmys ignored; sing me the song of Halt and Catch Fire) but does reflect the fact that people watched and responded to that show.
People definitely watched and responded to Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette, a Ryan Murphy–produced series that didn’t make most people feel all gross and grimy — for that you had to seek out Netflix’s Monster: The Ed Gein Story, which is hoping to follow in the steps of its predecessor seasons on the crimes of Jeffrey Dahmer and the Menendez brothers, nominees here in 2023 and 2025, respectively.
The year’s best true-crime story was actually Netflix’s Death by Lightning, a satisfyingly brief and buoyant four-episode series about the assassination of President James A. Garfield (Michael Shannon) and the wildly corrupt political moment that preceded it. The critics loved it, with the TCA, Gothams, and Critics Choice nominating it for their top awards. But Emmy voters might end up preferring the fictional crime of two other November premieres, Netflix’s The Beast in Me and Peacock’s All Her Fault, two similarly themed stories of gaslit women with incredible crying faces (Claire Danes and Sarah Snook, respectively).
Predicted nominees:
Beef (Netflix)
Half Man (HBO)
Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette (FX)
DTF St. Louis (HBO)
The Beast in Me (Netflix)
Possible Spoiler: All Her Fault (Peacock)
I’m Probably Underestimating: Monster: The Ed Gein Story (Netflix)
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Death by Lightning (Netflix)
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Bait (Prime Video)
The made-for-TV movie’s long slide into obsolescence is a problem that the Emmys and the TV industry as a whole still have not been able to solve. The networks have long since given up that ghost, HBO produces only one or two a year, and everything else is a collection of streaming titles that feel like barely glorified direct-to-video fare. In a good year, there are one or two films that get people talking, and they tend to rise above the morass. This year, those included Netflix’s Remarkably Bright Creatures, a cross-generational friendship story between Sally Field and Lewis Pullman that was more about an octopus than you would’ve expected, and the recently premiered Miss You, Love You, an HBO movie about grief starring Allison Janney and Andrew Rannells.
If you want to stretch the definition of “notable,” you could also include Hulu’s Swiped, which premiered at last year’s Toronto International Film Festival and starred Lily James as the real-life founder of Bumble; despite being decently engaging, it nonetheless felt like a leftover movie from that year where all the limited series were about the scammy origins of app-based “disruptors.”
To fill out a list of five predictions, I settled on Netflix’s People We Meet on Vacation, a romantic comedy whose director, Brett Haley, made the 2015 Blythe Danner film I’ll See You in My Dreams, a film so excellent and underappreciated that Haley should still be winning retroactive awards for it. I also went with Deep Cover, a Prime Video action comedy starring Ted Lasso Emmy nominee Nick Mohammed, which won the WGA Award for TV & New Media Motion Pictures, which is I guess what we’re calling this cursed subcategory of entertainment now.
Predicted nominees:
Remarkably Bright Creatures (Netflix)
Miss You, Love You (HBO)
Swiped (Hulu)
People We Meet on Vacation (Netflix)
Deep Cover (Prime Video)
Two things can be simultaneously true: Beef doesn’t do enough interesting or surprising things with Oscar Isaac’s character and as a result his performance isn’t super-memorable. Also, he’s a lock for an Emmy nomination and deservedly so. When the competition includes Paul Anthony Kelly, Love Story’s stiff and stilted hunk of Kennedy, and Charlie Hunnam, Monster’s predictably creepy Ed Gein, Isaac rises toward the top pretty easily.
His top competition, I’m more and more convinced, is Matthew Rhys, whose performance in The Beast in Me of an infamous and powerful megalomaniac who probably killed his wife (or did he?) looks even more impressive when it comes in the same year as his terrified but decent small-town mayor in Widow’s Bay. Is he the best actor currently working on television? Talk me out of it.
Jamie Bell’s candidacy for Half Man is certainly worthy, though the fact that he spends more than half of the series taking a back seat to Mitchell Robertson as the younger version of his character makes it hard to imagine he could win. Nominate them both, though! They’re worthy of it.
Netflix has too many limited series in contention this year, and it’s doubling down on internal competition by campaigning double leads for Death by Lightning (Michael Shannon as President Garfield and a sublimely delusional and uncomfortably familiar Matthew Macfadyen as his assassin, Charles Guiteau) and Black Rabbit (Jude Law and Jason Bateman as desperate brothers trying to stay one step ahead of many, many thugs). Shannon won the Gotham Award over Macfadyen and was Death by Lightning’s lone Lead Actor nominee at the Critics Choice, which has him looking like the more favored of that show’s actors. But the precursor season offers no favorite for Black Rabbit, with Law receiving a Golden Globe nod over Bateman, followed by Bateman getting an Actor Award nomination over Law.
Predicted nominees:
Oscar Isaac, Beef
Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me
Jamie Bell, Half Man
Charlie Hunnam, Monster: The Ed Gein Story
Paul Anthony Kelly, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette
Possible Spoiler: Michael Shannon, Death by Lightning
I’m Probably Underestimating: Jason Bateman, Black Rabbit
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Riz Ahmed, Bait
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Matthew Macfadyen, Death by Lightning
So many acting categories feel almost entirely up in the air. Not this one, though! We’re looking at four rock-solid nominees and then a wild-card fifth slot that’s open for business. Carey Mulligan’s pedigree as a three-time Oscar nominee doing American television for the first time should be more than enough to secure her a nomination, especially since her Beef performance is both funny and calculating. Former Emmy winners Sarah Snook (All Her Fault) and Claire Danes (The Beast in Me) should have no trouble finding their way to noms either, after having played a pair of women who will keep delivering Emmy-baiting monologues until someone believes them. But the whole field may end up as window dressing for the coronation of new star Sarah Pidgeon, who had everyone south of 86th Street in Manhattan in awe of her turn as Carolyn Bessette in Love Story.
As for who takes that final slot, we’ve got two very Emmy-friendly actresses representing TV movies: Sally Field (nine career nominations and three wins) for Remarkably Bright Creatures and Allison Janney (15 nominations and seven wins) for Miss You, Love You. Either one of them would be the first performer from a TV movie nominated for acting in three years (that was Daniel Radcliffe in Weird: The Al Yankovic Story) and the first in this category since Laura Dern was nominated for The Tale in 2018.
If the Emmy voters do end up feeling snobbish about TV movies, there’s two-time winner Patricia Arquette in Hulu’s Murdaugh: Death in the Family, Tessa Thompson in the Netflix hit His & Hers, and Kerry Washington in the critically beleaguered Apple TV series Imperfect Women. It wouldn’t be the first time Washington was nominated for a show nobody seemed to like very much. We all remember Little Fires Everywhere.
Predicted nominees:
Carey Mulligan, Beef
Sarah Pidgeon, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette
Sarah Snook, All Her Fault
Claire Danes, The Beast in Me
Sally Field, Remarkably Bright Creatures
Possible Spoiler: Allison Janney, Miss You, Love You
I’m Probably Underestimating: Patricia Arquette, Murdaugh: Death in the Family
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Tessa Thompson, His & Hers
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Camila Morrone, Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen
By all rights, Charles Melton should run away with this category, not only for the many distinct and illuminating shades of “dumb” he produces in his Beef character but also to make up for his shameful Oscar snub for May December. But it turns out this category is kind of stacked, thanks in no small part to blurred lines between lead and supporting categorizations.
Somehow, the Emmys decided to allow the entire lead cast of DTF St. Louis to submit as supporting performers. Is this some kind of a submissive thing? I don’t get it. But it means that both David Harbour and Jason Bateman have significant advantages over most everyone else in the race. Meanwhile, Richard Gadd’s legitimate supporting bid is nevertheless bolstered by the fact that he’s playing a character who looms so large over the entire series, I’m starting to wonder if the actor who plays the younger version of his character, a menacing Stuart Campbell, might also have a shot at a nomination.
Both Love Story and Death by Lightning have internal competition issues at play. Alessandro Nivola has the best chance of getting a nod for playing a deeply petty Calvin Klein, though I was more delighted by Ben Shenkman’s endearingly square Edwin Schlossberg. Then there is the parade of beards, muttonchops, and stovepipe hats on display in Death by Lightning, which offers a character-actor bonanza of machine politicians trying to get over on one another. I think Nick Offerman, as a belligerent and later penitent Chester A. Arthur, stands the best chance at a nomination, but Bradley Whitford is an Emmys darling, while Shea Whigham is a darling to everyone else.
And speaking of Emmys darlings, Better Call Saul and Breaking Bad’s Jonathan Banks is knocking on the door of another nomination as Matthew Rhys’s sneering father in The Beast in Me. It would be his seventh career nomination, though he’s never won.
Predicted nominees:
Charles Melton, Beef
Richard Gadd, Half Man
Jason Bateman, DTF St. Louis
David Harbour, DTF St. Louis
Nick Offerman, Death by Lightning
Stuart Campbell, Half Man
Possible Spoiler: Jonathan Banks, The Beast in Me
I’m Probably Underestimating: Alessandro Nivola, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Shea Whigham, Death by Lightning
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Ben Shenkman, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette
It’s a conundrum with Beef in this category. Youn Yuh-jung is an Oscar winner and excellent as the imperious Chairwoman Park. But her corner of the narrative is the show’s weakest, and that only becomes more apparent as the series goes on. Meanwhile, Cailee Spaeny is, I think, the weak link in the show’s cast, but her character is the most obviously transformed, which tends to stand out to awards voters. At this point, I’m going to assume they’ll both be nominated.
Linda Cardellini will benefit from her supporting actress categorization despite being one of DTF St. Louis’s three leads. Her nomination may well come at the expense of more traditional supporting performers like The Beast in Me’s Brittany Snow as a trophy wife who’s starting to catch on to the truth about her husband, Dakota Fanning as a second gaslit woman who isn’t Sarah Snook in All Her Fault, and Betty Gilpin as a resolute, soon-to-be widowed First Lady in Death by Lightning.
Love Story is facing an even more severe case of internal competition here than it did in Supporting Actor. It’s hard to see how Grace Gummer misses for her performance as the unyielding and ultimately devastated Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, and I’d honestly say the same about Naomi Watts, gaudy accent and all, as a dying Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis. But there are also strong cases to be made for Constance Zimmer’s turn as Bessette’s wary mother and Jessica Harper as a patrician-as-fuck Ethel Kennedy.
For as reliable as the Monster series has been in getting acting nominations (the first two seasons garnered three apiece), it would be foolish not to expect a nomination for Laurie Metcalf playing the inspiration for Norman Bates’s mother, of all roles — though I’d also consider Lesley Manville, who also just won a Tony Award, for her role as a tragic floozy who becomes an early victim of Gein’s.
Predicted nominees:
Cailee Spaeny, Beef
Youn Yuh-jung, Beef
Linda Cardellini, DTF St. Louis
Grace Gummer, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette
Naomi Watts, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette
Laurie Metcalf, Monster: The Ed Gein Story
Possible Spoiler: Dakota Fanning, All Her Fault
I’m Probably Underestimating: Brittany Snow, The Beast in Me
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Betty Gilpin, Death by Lightning
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Constance Zimmer, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette
There was a time I thought that Padma Lakshmi’s America’s Culinary Cup could make a dent in this category with a splashy debut, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. There isn’t much reason to think there will be any changes from last year’s lineup, which nominated The Traitors for the second straight year, RuPaul’s Drag Race for the ninth straight year, Top Chef for the 19th straight year, and The Amazing Race for the 22nd time in 23 years.
Last year’s perceived fifth-place show, Survivor (which supplanted The Voice, knocking it out of the category for the first time since its 2012 debut), is coming off of an incredibly buzzy and media-saturated 50th season, so I doubt that’s going anywhere either. But if there is one show to make a dent, it should be Dancing With the Stars, whose dance-pro-powered 34th season kicked its viewership up to pre-COVID levels and basically breathed new life into the series.
Predicted nominees:
The Traitors (Peacock)
RuPaul’s Drag Race (MTV)
Survivor (CBS)
Top Chef (Bravo)
The Amazing Race (NBC)
Possible Spoiler: Dancing With the Stars (ABC)
I’m Probably Underestimating: The Voice (CBS)
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Is It Cake? (Netflix)
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Squid Game: The Challenge (Netflix)
In 2023, the Outstanding Variety Series category was split up into Outstanding Talk Series (the late-night shows) and Outstanding Scripted Variety Series (sketch shows and Last Week Tonight With John Oliver). This year, those categories have been recombined, and we’ll get to see just how popular bucking the Trump administration has made Jimmy Kimmel and Stephen Colbert. Last year, The Late Show With Stephen Colbert won the Outstanding Talk Series category for the first time in its existence, buoyed by a wave of popular support after CBS canceled the series in what sure looked like a Trump-appeasing show of cowardice. And that was before Colbert’s just-completed farewell season. Since then, Kimmel has become Trump’s target of choice. Does this category need to be decided based entirely on which show is doing the best job at pissing off the president? No, but welcome to late-night TV in the 2020s.
With Kimmel and Colbert enjoying this much support, it’s bad news for Late Night With Seth Meyers, considering it’s unlikely the Emmys’ love affairs with John Oliver, Jon Stewart/The Daily Show, and Saturday Night Live will be ending soon. This also leaves the streaming series on the outside looking in. Hot Ones has been the chic prediction in this category for a few years now, but the Emmy voters are typically slow to embrace change. Despite YouTube’s concerted push to get people talking about their Emmys chances this season, we are probably a few years away from Brittany Broski’s Royal Court cracking this lineup. I’d believe in Hot Ones’s chances more than I’d believe in Bravo’s Watch What Happens Live, which is too bad considering the function it serves for Bravo viewers makes it far more essential than any of the network late-night shows.
Predicted nominees:
The Daily Show (Comedy Central)
Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Possible Spoiler: Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC)
I’m Probably Underestimating: Hot Ones (YouTube)
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Watch What Happens Live (Bravo)
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Royal Court (YouTube)
Last year, The Pitt didn’t flood the zone with nominees like it might have, with voters focused on one particularly impactful performance, Shawn Hatosy. With Hatosy bumped up to Supporting Actor, I think Jeff Kober is The Pitt’s best contender here, playing Dr. Robby’s motorcycling pal who gets a devastating diagnosis.
This is also probably Euphoria’s strongest category, with awards magnet Colman Domingo a near certainty to pick up a nomination as Rue’s sponsor. And keep an eye out for a posthumous nomination for the late Eric Dane, who filmed his Euphoria scenes before he died this past February from complications due to ALS. I’m also confident in a nomination for Bradley Whitford, who’s a hoot as a checked-out First Gentleman on The Diplomat.
Beyond that, things could go a lot of ways. Jonathan Pryce feels like a low-risk bet for Slow Horses, given his role as River Cartwright’s Alzheimer’s-afflicted grandfather. Giancarlo Esposito was a nominee last year for The Boys, and this is voters’ last chance to give him that honor again.
Pluribus is an interesting case. I think voters will go for Samba Schutte as the show’s hedonistic-yet-practical Koumba, but there’s also Jeff Hiller — now an Emmy winner and thus In the Club — who had a great episode playing an emissary of the hive mind who is pushed to give Carol some unkind truths.
Also, how are they going to keep denying The Gilded Age in these guest categories? Especially when they’ve got Nathan Lane pulling a Truman Capote on these opera-society swans and Bill Camp playing J.P. Morgan?
Predicted nominees:
Colman Domingo, Euphoria
Jeff Kober, The Pitt
Bradley Whitford, The Diplomat
Eric Dane, Euphoria
Jonathan Pryce, Slow Horses
Samba Schutte, Pluribus
Possible Spoiler: Ernest Harden Jr., The Pitt
I’m Probably Underestimating: Giancarlo Esposito, The Boys
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Jeff Hiller, Pluribus
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Nathan Lane, The Gilded Age
I already regret how bullish I am on The Pitt performing well in this category. None of these women have “name” value, but regardless, the ingredients are there. Brittany Allen, who played the terminally ill mother, got herself in the trades for having to self-submit for the Guest Actress category (something I suspect a majority of guest-acting contenders do, but whatever). Tal Anderson was not only compelling as Mel King’s unexpectedly (to Mel, at least) sexually active sister, but she’s also an advocate for autism and neurodiversity awareness. Tina Ivlev’s scenes with Katherine LaNasa as a sexual-assault victim submitting to an evidence-gathering examination were some of the most impactful all season. And if The Pitt goes over like I expect it to as an across-the-board nomination leader, why wouldn’t they be able to pull their guest cast along with them?
Elsewhere, Elisabeth Moss’s candidacy for a nomination for The Testaments is so strong, they got the Emmys to make a ruling on her eligibility just to be sure. (It does not violate the new rule that you can’t submit for Guest Actor/Actress after having been nominated in Lead or Supporting because The Testaments is a different show than The Handmaid’s Tale, despite Moss playing the same character.)
Merritt Wever is the defending champion of this category, having won last year for Severance. She’s back in contention again this year for The Gilded Age, where she played sister to Carrie Coon’s character. At this point, Wever has won three Emmys for three different shows (Nurse Jackie and Godless, in addition to Severance) and should never be too far away from a predicted Emmys lineup.
Miriam Shor was a crucial part of the emotional undergirding of Pluribus, especially at the beginning, so I’m optimistic about her chances. And Shailene Woodley might be playing the highest-profile character in this category; her Annie was a massive part of Paradise opening up its universe, and though she’s only in three episodes, she’s essentially a co-lead in the first half of the season.
Predicted nominees:
Brittany Allen, The Pitt
Tal Anderson, The Pitt
Tina Ivlev, The Pitt
Miriam Shor, Pluribus
Elisabeth Moss, The Testaments
Shailene Woodley, Paradise
Possible Spoiler: Merritt Wever, The Gilded Age
I’m Probably Underestimating: Danielle Deadwyler, Euphoria
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Alanna Ubach, Euphoria
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Ayesha Harris, The Pitt
This is the category that was overrun by The Studio cameos last year, kicking out, among others, the usual glut of Saturday Night Live hosts who tend to populate the comedy guest categories. Will the Emmy voters revert to form with The Studio ineligible, or have they gotten a taste for other shows?
If the SNL hosts do show up again, it’ll be the usual crapshoot to try to guess who the nominees will be. The smart money is on Connor Storrie, due to his general popularity and the fact that the Emmys can’t nominate him for Heated Rivalry. Then it’s a matter of trying to read the Emmys’ historical tendencies: Do they nominate a returning cast member like Will Ferrell, as they have done 22 times since 2009? Do they nominate Ryan Gosling like they did two years ago? Do they nominate Colman Domingo like they’re going to do in Guest Actor in a Drama? Do they nominate Bad Bunny because it’s his year? Lots to consider!
Elsewhere, Jon Bernthal is the 1927 Yankees of the Guest Actor in a Drama category, and him getting an entire bonus episode of The Bear as a two-hander to share with Ebon Moss-Bachrach only enhances his chances at a fourth straight nomination. He could be joined under The Bear’s banner by a posthumous nomination for Rob Reiner, who played a mentor figure to Ebra (Edwin Lee Gibson).
After Bernthal, I think the most likely nominee here is Michael J. Fox as a (sometimes imaginary) Parkinson’s patient on Shrinking. Fox has been previously nominated eight times for guest-acting Emmys, winning in the Drama category in 2009 for Rescue Me. He’s also a five-time Emmy winner overall and TV industry royalty, though he could also see some in-house competition from Jeff Daniels, who showed up in Shrinking’s third season as Jason Segel’s dad.
The Comeback was also rich with guest-acting possibilities, most prominently Andrew Scott as the AI-peddling tech devil behind Valerie’s latest show, and John Early as said show’s severely temperamental co–head writer. The voting window probably closed too soon for voters to respond to the death of James Burrows by voting him in for his impeccably dry performance as himself, but they should have been voting for him anyway.
For a show the Emmys loved as much as Hacks, they’ve historically not been particularly strong in Guest Actor. Christopher McDonald has only been nominated once for his role as Deborah Vance’s on-again, off-again paramour. There are sentimental reasons to vote him in this year, but I think there are better cases for performers like Hamish Linklater, playing an accursed and eventually undead colonial on Widow’s Bay, and Craig Robinson as the spiteful rival of the title character in The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins.
Predicted nominees:
Jon Bernthal, The Bear
Michael J. Fox, Shrinking
Hamish Linklater, Widow’s Bay
Ryan Gosling, Saturday Night Live
Connor Storrie, Saturday Night Live
Rob Reiner, The Bear
Possible Spoiler: Will Ferrell, Saturday Night Live
I’m Probably Underestimating: Christopher McDonald, Hacks
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: James Burrows, The Comeback
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Craig Robinson, The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
Betting against a third-straight nomination for The Bear’s Jamie Lee Curtis seems foolish, as does betting against Cherry Jones, but especially when she’s playing an alpha lesbian mentoring Deborah Vance out of the closet on Hacks.
Hacks could plausibly dominate this category, starting with Jones and her on-screen partner Leslie Bibb, who was left out of the White Lotus nomination parade last year, which either means Emmy voters don’t really dig her or else she’s due for a makeup nomination. Former Hacks guest nominees Kaitlin Olson (as Deborah’s daughter/Amazing Race partner DJ), Jane Adams (as Ava’s mom), and Laurie Metcalf (as, naturally, Weed the roadie) are back in contention this year as well as J. Smith-Cameron (as Deborah’s estranged sister), Alanna Ubach (as a Madison Square Garden exec besieged by Deborah’s fans), and Lauren Weedman (one last chance to honor her deranged performance as the mayor of Las Vegas).
Elsewhere, Saturday Night Live could reassert its dominance in this category as well, with five-time nominee and 2017 winner Melissa McCarthy eligible, alongside pop stars Ariana Grande and Olivia Rodrigo and returning cast member Amy Poehler. If you’re curious how Poehler is able to qualify as a guest actor for SNL after having been a Supporting Actress nominee in 2008 and 2009, according to an email from the Television Academy, “When Amy Poehler was nominated in 2008 and 2009, it was for her regular series work on SNL. The entry this year is for hosting SNL, so the Academy considers that a different role.”
Three-time Emmy nominee Betty Gilpin got a plum role in the Widow’s Bay flashback episode, playing a colonial woman to whom the task of eradicating the devil has fallen. And four-time Emmy nominee Taraji P. Henson could reprise her 2023 nomination for Abbott Elementary as Janine’s mom.
Two particularly intriguing cases for long-shot nominations are The Comeback’s Abbi Jacobson, who delivers a rant about the state of TV writing in an age of creeping AI that probably landed with a lot of folks working in the industry, and Laura Benanti, whose recurring performances as Melania Trump on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert could give voters one more opportunity to send Colbert off into the sunset with a big middle finger to the Trump administration.
Predicted nominees:
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Bear
Cherry Jones, Hacks
Kaitlin Olson, Hacks
J. Smith-Cameron, Hacks
Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live
Betty Gilpin, Widow’s Bay
Possible Spoiler: Taraji P. Henson, Abbott Elementary
I’m Probably Underestimating: Amy Poehler, Saturday Night Live
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Olivia Rodrigo, Saturday Night Live
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Abbi Jacobson, The Comeback
Last year’s nominees, Alan Cumming (The Traitors), RuPaul Charles (RuPaul’s Drag Race), Jeff Probst (Survivor), Kristen Kish (Top Chef), and the Shark Tank crew, are all very strongly favored to return as nominees as is this category’s custom. There are only a handful of questions standing in their way:
Q: Is Kevin Hart appealing enough as a new-blood entry in the category for his stand-up comedy competition, Funny AF With Kevin Hart?
A: Not after how poorly that roast of his was received.
Q: Is Mr.Beast, a.k.a. Jimmy Donaldson, enough of a worldwide phenomenon to pull votes for his hosting of Beast Games?
A: Not after how poorly his appearance on Survivor was received.
Q: Could Padma Lakshmi return to the category for the first time since 2023 with America’s Culinary Cup?
A: Her chances would be better if her Top Chef replacement, Kristen Kish, weren’t coming into her own in her new role.
Q: Have the vibes among the Queer Eye hosts become too toxic for them to return as nominees after three years?
A: Oh yeah, definitely.
Q: Is It Cake?
A: It may or may not be cake, but Netflix’s celebration of baking fakery is probably not going to get the SNL star a nomination, likable though he may be.
Predicted nominees:
Alan Cumming, The Traitors
RuPaul Charles, Drag Race
Kristen Kish, Top Chef
Jeff Probst, Survivor
Barbara Corcoran, Lori Greiner, Robert Herjavec, Daymond John, Daniel Lubetzky, Kevin O’Leary, Shark Tank
Possible Spoiler: Padma Lakshmi, America’s Culinary Cup
I’m Probably Underestimating: Jimmy Donaldson, Beast Games
Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Ariana Madix, Love Island USA
Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Guy Fieri, Diners, Drive-ins, and Dives
