Trucking freight carriers continue to enjoy a “very favorable market” as an index of business conditions eased only slightly from its record high level in May, according to transportation analyst firm FTR.
Bloomington, Indiana-based FTR said its Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) for June eased to 17.1 from May’s record 20.4 reading. The change came as slightly less robust freight rate growth was partially offset by lower diesel prices in June to produce overall market conditions that were not quite as positive as those in May.
Despite that downward blip, the outlook for carriers is a bit stronger than it was in the prior forecast, the report found.
“We expect the market to be favorable for carriers throughout our two-year forecast horizon, but the recovery appears to be stabilizing. For example, spot rates in July softened as seasonally expected even though fuel prices rose sharply – quite a different dynamic than what occurred in March. Even if spot rates have peaked, contract rates likely will continue to rise well into 2027,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said in a release.
“To this point, the truck freight market’s strength is principally due to supply-side constraints – especially for dry van and refrigerated operations. An encouraging signal is the ongoing recovery in manufacturing demand, and consumer spending has been solid. Data center construction clearly has boosted flatbed especially. Concerns include slowing U.S. job growth, a persistently weak housing sector, and stubborn price inflation for both consumers and businesses. Although freight demand still doesn’t look that strong, we see little sign that trucking capacity will rise substantially in the near term.”
The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Combined into a single index, a positive score represents good, optimistic conditions, while a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions.
