Business activity in key segments of the logistics economy remained steady despite slowing conditions recorded in July, according to reports released this week.
U.S. trucking activity fell 1% in July after rising 1.5% in June, according to the American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) monthly Truck Tonnage Index.
ATA’s advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index equaled 113.5 in July, down from 114.7 in June. The index fell 0.5% from the same month in 2025, which was worse than June’s revised 1.2% gain, ATA said. Year-to-date, compared with the same period in 2025, tonnage is up 1.4% due to robust year-over-year increases from February through April.
“Tonnage levels have been choppy recently, and this trend was reflected in July’s decline,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in a press release announcing the results Tuesday. “Aside from a couple pockets of strength, including the boom in data center construction for AI, freight has been lackluster. It is also true that the industry is seeing a recovery, but that is nearly all due to excess capacity leaving the market.”
Intermodal freight activity is moderating as well, according to August estimates from the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), released Monday. The group said its Intermodal Volume Index (IVI) registered 101.3, down from July’s estimate of 104.1, but still showing year-over-year growth.
A steady reading near the IVI’s baseline of 100 indicates intermodal demand remains stable, neither accelerating into a capacity crunch nor sliding toward a downturn, according to IANA.
“The August estimate, though down, reads as a continuation of the strength that we’ve seen for much of … 2026,” Andrew Sibold, IANA’s director of economics, said in a statement announcing the monthly report. “Although this month’s forecast carries a bit more uncertainty, we’re seeing no reason for any near-term reversal of the positive trend we’ve seen this year.”
Manufacturing groups reported similar results. Declines in consumer goods production were offset by gains in other areas—particularly industrial equipment and defense production—yielding a slightly slower rate of growth in industrial output during July compared to June, according to a report from AMT-The Association for Manufacturing Technology, released Tuesday. Total U.S. industrial production grew 0.2% in July, down from 0.3% growth in June, according to AMT.
“The pullback in production of consumer goods could be the result of the increasingly bifurcated consumer economy,” Christopher Chidzik, principal economist with AMT, said in a press release. “Manufacturing technology orders came in at record levels over the first half of 2026. Some of these capital investments were surely motivated by increased demand for industrial, space, and defense equipment. While a deterioration of consumer strength could quell some manufacturing technology orders, elevated demand from producers of business and military equipment could keep the industrial economy afloat during any upcoming period of declining consumer activity.”
