Higher tariffs and geopolitical conflicts have been slowing the flow of global trade, but a powerful new trend is now helping to outweigh those forces, as the global race to build infrastructure for artificial intelligence is giving world trade strong momentum, according to a study from DHL.
The report shows that global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional Covid rebound. A major driver was strong demand for goods used to build AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment. Trade in AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, and this share rose to 76% during the first quarter of 2026, according to WTO and OECD analysis.
This is one of the key findings of the latest edition of the “DHL Globalization Tracker”—previously known as the “DHL Global Connectedness Tracker”—which was released October 7 by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business. Based on more than 30 million data points, the report analyzes international flows of trade, capital, information, and people.
“The biggest story in global trade right now is AI – not tariffs,” said John Pearson, CEO DHL Express. “Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment, and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time. DHL connects the businesses and markets behind these complex supply chains.”
To be sure, the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted important trade routes. But according to DHL, those effects remained concentrated on economies dependent on the Strait. For example, the value of trade fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
Likewise, trade policy created a separate headwind. U.S. tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their global impact was limited for two reasons. First is that the U.S. accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, with roughly half of those imports exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026. And second, most countries refrained from broad retaliation, and instead increased efforts to secure access to alternative markets through new trade agreements.
Another finding is that the weakening of U.S.-China ties has had a surprisingly small global impact. For example, trade between the U.S. and China accounted for 3.5% of world trade at its peak in 2015, before falling to only 1.6% during the first five months of 2026. The U.S.-China share of international business investment is even smaller – less than 1%. Meanwhile, close U.S. allies have largely maintained their relationships with China.
Weighing all those variables together, DHL is forecasting that global goods trade is projected to expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029. That would be substantially faster than the 2.7% rate recorded over the previous decade.
