Australian EV Market Blinks — October Update

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After achieving an over 15% penetration rate over the last few months, Australian plug-in vehicle sales dipped in October. Battery electric sales achieved 7.3% and PHEVs 4.7%, for a combined plug-in total of 12%. The dip appears to be mainly due to the usual early quarter slowdown in Tesla deliveries. The transitory nature of this did not stop the Murdoch media running this headline in the Sydney Morning Herald: “Australia’s electric vehicle revolution stalls as sales plummet.” Is 15% down to 12% a plummet? A dip perhaps, but a plummet? You can check out the cool graphs showing the slow but inevitable growth of plug-in cars from EVDB here.

The top ten BEVs sold in October 2025 in Australia were:

1. BYD Sea Lion 7 — 1,342 sales (year to date — 9,824)
2. Tesla Model Y — 735 sales (YTD 17,972)
3. Geely EX5 — 343 sales (YTD 3,358)
4. Kia EX5 — 340 sales (YTD 4,241)
5. BYD Atto 3 — 318 sales (YTD 3,330)
6. BYD Dolphin — 311 sales (YTD 2,880)
7. MG S5 — 282 sales (YTD 1,466)
8. BYD Seal — 259 sales (YTD 3,214)
9. Kia EV3 — 211 sales (YTD 2,181)
10. VW ID.4 — 197 sales (YTD 926)

For the curious (as I am), the Tesla Model 3 just missed the top ten with sales of 181 units and a year-to-date total of 5,597. The Model Y is outselling its older sibling at almost 3 to one. Aussies love their SUVs. I always keep an eye out for Toyota, Australia’s leading fossil fuel brand, so far this year it has managed to sell almost 800 of its Toyota BZ4X, 121 being sold in October. We should add the Subaru-badged version — the Solterra — sold 3 sold in October and 142 year-to date. Zeekr has managed to sell over 200 of its debutante EVs. And, Xpeng is still being shy with no numbers available.

Almost 100,000 vehicles of all drivetrains sold into the Australian market in October 2025. The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) notes that there was a “sharp rise” in hybrid (HEV) and plug-in hybrid models (PHEV). PHEVs are up 137% year to date. My home state of Queensland was the only Australian state to go backwards on EV adoption.

FCAI chief executive Tony Weber said: “Petrol-only vehicles, on the other hand, continue to lose ground. These shifts underline the pace of change in consumer preferences.” For those who want more graphs, check out the graph of “New car sales by fuel type / Fuel type market share” here. It shows petrol-only drivetrains’ steady decline from 57% in 2020 to 38% today — the difference appears to be made up of HEVs. Diesel seems to have remained stable — where are those promised BEV utes?  Australia’s top models continue to be the Toyota HiLux (4,444), Ford Ranger (4,402), Toyota RAV4 (4,401), and Ford Everest (2,435).

BYD appears to be consistently shipping models and storing them in areas around Australia for convenient delivery. This has led to numerous news stories about BYD being unable to sell cars and so they are dumping them in parking lots. The same sort of stories was told about Tesla. What’s interesting is that most car importers in Australia do the same thing, store inventory awaiting sale and delivery, but the media don’t give them a hard time about it. It is just industry practise.

Half of the PHEVs sold in Australia were BYD’s popular Sea Lion (1341) and Shark (1070). With the release of two new affordable BYD models — the Atto 1 (aka Seagull; Dolphin Surf; Dolphin Mini) and the Atto 2 (aka Yuan plus) — BYD is expecting a bumper 2026. As I write this, the Atto 2 is readying for launch. I plan to go and see for myself this afternoon. Of course, I have joined the newly minted Facebook page!

Tesla has announced that it has delivered a cumulative 150,000 vehicles to Australian drivers. They are everywhere. Sadly, we have now stopped waving to each other — getting RSI, we were. Australia was the first right-hand drive market to gain access to Full Self Driving (Supervised). Tesla reports that “FSD Supervised users in Australia and New Zealand have collectively driven over 1 million kilometers within two weeks of the system’s public release. The company noted that drivers are averaging around 80,000 kilometers per day with FSD Supervised active, equivalent to 67 laps around Australia or 625 trips from Auckland to Invercargill.”

My correspondent, James, from over the ditch in New Zealand, asks the question: “Australians have been early adopters of technology — why are EVs struggling to get traction, there?” Perhaps they perceive that they have to go out of their way to get an EV. Fear of the unknown? Are salespeople actively encouraging a hybrid purchase over an EV? Perhaps it is the complexity of charging and the uncertainty that comes with that?

James continues, quoting Henry Cloud: “We change our behaviour when the pain of staying the same becomes greater than the pain of changing.” When petrol prices rise, there is pain at the pump. There is pain when we consider what sort of world we are leaving for our grandchildren. He shares this anecdote: A guy who’d been driving a performance EV for 1 year felt FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) about a new powerful well-marketed ICE vehicle, so he took a test drive. “Nah, not for me anymore, it was a noisy, shuddering pain in the 4r5e to drive.” (His words not mine.)

The massive amount of misinformation really doesn’t help. At coffee yesterday, an old friend queried about battery recycling. Strange that this is an issue for BEVs but he doesn’t see a problem with buying a Toyota Yaris HEV. Does the battery in his new car not need to be recycled? I assured him that all countries now have battery recycling plans in place. I told him that this may have been an issue 10 years ago, but no longer. FUD persists and is selective and self-contradictory.

For those of you who check out the comments sections under EV posts on Facebook, the following points by James make a good summary: “Comments sections are ugly with blatant untruths repeated ad nauseum. Critical thinking and fact-checking are drowned out by ignorance and outrage.

“The number of people who believe an idea is directly proportional to the number of times it has been repeated during the last year — even if the idea is false.” — James Clear

In recent times, though, with more people having the EV experience, owners are fighting back and answering some of the objections, with cogent reasons drawn from their own first-person knowledge.

Some people believe the FUD but buy the vehicle anyway. I met a new Model Y owner while shopping. He asked me about replacing the battery — I told him we had driven 170,000 km in our Model 3 with about 10% degradation and had needed to replace the battery. He was surprised, but stated that he thought that by the time the battery needed replacing, there would be cheaper options. He felt the FUD but bought the car anyway!

Although the stats are down, it is likely to be seasonal. The Everything Electric Show is going full swing in Melbourne. New vehicles are being launched and lots of good discussions are taking place. Even the Cadillac LYRIQ is going on sale in Australia soon!