Geely & BYD Are Top Bidders For Nissan/Mercedes Aguascalientes Plant, Potentially Expanding Mexican EV Production

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Recent reports out of Mexico indicate that Nissan and Mercedes are selling their joint venture factory in Aguascalientes, Mexico, and the top bidders have been narrowed down to BYD and Geely.

Overall, this represents a dramatic shift for legacy automakers in Mexico. While Chinese vehicles have rapidly risen to take 20% of the Mexican new car market, the factory will lead to significant localized capacity. That will help to develop local supply chains that will support further localization, with implications not only for the Mexican market, but also its nearby trading partners.

Nissan’s Shuttered Mexican Factories Leave a Gap in the Market

A little over a decade ago, Nissan was a rapidly growing company under Carlos Ghosn. This was especially the case in Mexico. Jose Munos, Nissan’s then head of Mexican operations and current CEO of Hyundai, had led Nissan to become the largest brand in Mexico for multiple years.

In that context, companies were eager to partner with Nissan. Mercedes teamed up with Nissan in 2015 to build COMPAS (Cooperative Manufacturing Plant Aguascalientes), next to existing Nissan manufacturing facilities. Production started in 2017. The plant was intended to make premium compact vehicles for Mercedes (GLB) and Nissan’s Infiniti brand (QX50 & QX55). Total production capacity was 230,000 vehicles.

However, times have changed. Nissan has gone from a fast-growing, profitable company and EV leader to shrinking sales and frequent losses. After Nissan announced the closure of its CIVAC plant in Mexico last July, the Aguascalientes JV plant seemed to be next on the list. Mercedes decided to stop making the GLB there. Infiniti QX50 and QX55 sales had declined, with no 2026 model announced.

Nissan’s CIVAC plant that is also in the process of closing had produced the Nissan Versa, which also appears to be dropped. This was the least expensive car available in the US. Its discontinuation raises the price floor and reduces the competition for small affordable cars.

Overall, it is very difficult to get the scale needed to sell an affordable subcompact if isolated from other markets. Especially in the US, where sales are relatively low. Margins tend to be low, and large volumes are needed to make production viable. Isolation from global markets where these vehicles are more popular essentially closes off access to these vehicles.

Chinese Automakers Step Up to Fill the Gap

From this backdrop, Reuters reported that BYD and Geely had risen to the top of a list of companies bidding to take over the plant. Other competitors had included GWM, Chery, and VinFast.

BYD or Geely could help fill the gap in the market with affordable subcompact cars. While Geely still makes non-plug ICE vehicles, BYD only makes vehicles with a plug. There is a good chance that the plant will make vehicles that fill a gap in the affordable end of the spectrum and that those vehicles will be EVs.

These vehicles will likely appeal to people in LATAM. But they might also appeal to people in Canada. Canada’s favorable trade relations with Mexico could lead to further EVs being imported, beyond those now allowed to be imported from China and those planned for local assembly.

Could we potentially see them enter the US? Some signs are increasingly hopeful. The Supreme Court should be releasing a ruling soon on whether or not the president has the authority to issue tariffs without congressional approval. Several lawsuits are waiting on that ruling, including from BYD, who had to pay significant tariffs on imported components for its US operations.

In addition, the US House has passed a bipartisan resolution to end Trump’s tariffs on Canada, led by my local representative Gregory Meeks. This opens the door for similar resolutions against other tariffs and exposes a fissure between Congress and the president. In addition, while the president acting on trade without the approval of Congress is questionable, acting in outright opposition to Congress is undeniably unconstitutional.

However, it may not be enough. Protectionists are making up excuses and will simply call anything that they don’t like a security threat. We may not see these cars enter the US anytime soon. But they are potentially good news for our neighbors.