How Long Until China Is At 90% Plugin Vehicle Sales?

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More than half of China’s new vehicle sales are plugin vehicle sales — 54% across the first 11 months of 2025 (33% BEVs alone). It seems like a blink of an eye from China crossing 20% plugin vehicle sales to crossing 50% plugin vehicle sales. The country just flew from somewhat notable plugin vehicle sales to plugin vehicles taking over the market.

But, as always, there’s a question of where from here? Can China’s electric vehicle sales keep rising as they have been, or are they about to stall? Throwing a wrench in things, China is no longer focusing on EVs (or New Energy Vehicles) in its 5-year plan, and it’s a little unclear what that means — is it stepping off the acceleration pedal or do the country’s leadership see the market as mature enough to push it out of the nest and let it spread its wings?

Luckily, China is not the first country to reach 50% plugin vehicle sales, and we might have some clues from leading nation Norway on where the red giant could go from here.

Longtime reader and brilliant mind “neroden” popped this comment under an article yesterday (stimulating this article):

“China’s passed the crossover point of 50% of new vehicles electric. It took four years for Norway to go from 50% to 90%, and it should not take more than five for China, so they’ll be at nearly-all new vehicles electric in 2030. The Chinese companies are overbuilt enough for the Chinese market that they will need to ship cars abroad to keep their margins up, and they’re already doing it (BYD being in the lead on this). This means mass electricifcation of one country after another as the Chinese carmakers target them with inexpensive electric cars.”

Will China really be at 90% plugin vehicle sales by 2030? Personally, I think it will. In fact, we’ve seen that countries that have followed Norway’s EV share rise have often done it quicker in recent years.

China’s EV market is already highly developed, hyper competitive (by far the most competitive in the world), and growing fast. It should continue doing so, and there’s really no clear reason it should stall.

So, what do you think, does Norway get to 90% plugin vehicle share by 2029 or 2030, or will it take longer?