This is especially important during peak shipping season, when many companies must ramp up productivity to accommodate the increase in orders flowing through their facilities. Mobile robots can help automate picking, fulfillment, and replenishment tasks, speeding warehouse operations and often reducing demand for temporary labor. Earlier this fall, some robotics companies were touting big gains in their mobile robot deployments in response to the double-whammy of economic uncertainty and peak, with plans for similar growth heading into 2026.
SCALABILITY RULES THE DAY
Demand for some types of automation is beginning to pick up after a two-year dry spell that saw slower sales and deployments of automated warehouse equipment—conditions that have been exacerbated by the ups and downs of tariffs in 2025.
“There is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, [and] this is causing an element of hesitancy among investors in automation,” Scriven explains.
In an April report, Interact Analysis warned that the Trump administration’s tariffs could affect warehouse automation investment decisions, supply chain strategies, and logistics infrastructure in 2025—with steel tariffs, in particular, driving up the cost of automated systems and thus reducing companies’ return on investment (ROI) across the board. In June, Interact Analysis downgraded its warehouse automation forecast through 2030 based on those conditions. A month later, the research firm reported that global sales of industrial robots fell nearly 6% in 2024 and were expected to pick up only gradually this year.
Mobile robots—especially the collaborative kind, which are designed to work alongside humans—may be the one bright spot on the horizon, driven by the demand for flexibility and scalability that Scriven and others say has emerged this year. Globally, collaborative robot (cobot) shipments fell nearly 14% in 2024 but are expected to rise nearly 21% this year and 24% next year, according to additional Interact Analysis data released in July.
Collaborative AMR developer Locus Robotics is experiencing the trend firsthand. CEO Rick Faulk says the company’s peak-season robot deployments were up 50% year over year by mid-September, with customers saying they needed the robots to handle the 30% to 40% jump in order volumes many were already experiencing at that time. Locus offers its artificial intelligence (AI)-driven LocusOne platform and fleet of AMRs through a robots-as-a-service (RaaS) model, which allows companies to add or remove robots based on fluctuating demand.
“[Customers] all have the same challenges. They are under pressure to do more with less,” Faulk explains, adding that Locus is seeing the highest peak season demand for its robots in the United States and Europe compared to other parts of the world. “With our robots-as-a-service model, it’s not about massive capital investment anymore. It’s really about flexible, scalable tools that can be implemented quickly. So they can scale up and down based on demand.”
Faulk says scaling up is easy: Locus bots can be powered up, connected to Wi-Fi, and ready to navigate the warehouse in about two minutes. He says implementing a new system is quick as well; it typically takes just a few weeks to have the LocusOne platform and robots operational. In contrast, fixed automation projects can take months—even years—and don’t have the scalability of mobile robotics. Fixed automation systems include solutions that are bolted to the floor, such as conveyors, sorters, vertical lift modules (VLMs), and the like.
Faulk underscores the acceleration of demand for flexible automation by noting that the technology was still “emerging” just five years ago. Now, he says, it’s an easy way for companies to answer the call for warehouse automation while dealing with rising costs, fluctuating volume, and other market pressures.
“The trend toward flexibility, it’s here to stay,” Faulk says. “The math of that is simple: Rising wages and rising volumes create a rising need for automation—that is the macro trend that is happening.”
Faulk says Locus Robotics will ship “thousands” of its cobots for peak season this year—and to handle the coming wave of returns in January.
PREPPING FOR THE “NEW PEAK”
Another issue driving the trend toward scalable, flexible robotics is what Faulk and others call the “flattening” of peak holiday shipping season and the advent of a new peak: the onslaught of post-holiday returns in January.
First, fall sales and discounts—including Amazon’s October Prime Big Deal Days—are pre-empting “Black Friday” as the start of the holiday shopping season and effectively flattening the traditional peak, creating a longer cycle of heightened, though perhaps less frenzied, demand.
“Three years ago, Black Friday started everything. But what we’re seeing now is earlier shopping and a flattening of the peak,” Faulk explains, noting that the change makes it easier for retailers and third-party logistics service providers (3PLs) to manage the higher volumes by distributing the work over a longer time period. “They’re incentivizing purchases early, [which allows them to] spread out the demand and spread out the workforce.”
Second, warehouses and fulfillment centers are dealing with the acceleration of “bracketing,” or what Faulk refers to as “the Goldilocks” problem: online shoppers ordering items in multiple sizes with the intention of returning those that are not quite the right fit.
Free and easy returns are driving the trend.
“What that creates on the back end is a massive reverse logistics peak, which starts in January,” he says. “This year is forecast to be the highest ever.”
Because customers are using Locus’ AMRs for more than just picking, Faulk says he expects to see heightened demand well into January. Outside of picking, Faulk says about 40% of customers are also using robots for replenishment, and a growing number are applying them to returns as well.
And it’s all in the name of speeding throughput, whether outbound or inbound.
“When volumes double overnight, you can’t just double your workforce,” Faulk says. “Automation is the only lever that can scale at peak. And that’s why flexible automation is important.”
Up next: Humanoids
The next wave of flexible warehouse robotics may be here sooner than you think, and their “form factor” will be eerily familiar to their new co-workers. Many robotics companies are hard at work developing and testing humanoid robots, with hopes of putting them to work at scale in warehouses around the world over the next few years. Humanoid robots resemble the human body—in general, they have a torso, head, and two arms and legs, but they can also replicate just portions of the body (for example, some models have torsos and limbs but no heads).
Two developments this past summer are helping to move the industry in that direction. In August, Chinese robotics company RealMan Robotics launched a 30,000-square-foot Humanoid Robotics Data Training Center in Beijing, deploying more than 100 robots across real-world environments to accelerate “embodied AI and humanoid robot development.” Company leaders say the training center will “expand industry-academia collaboration, mobilize ecosystem resources, and foster a culture of technology co-creation, data sharing, and business co-growth”—efforts they hope will accelerate the global adoption of humanoid robotics and promote sustainable, high-quality robot development. RealMan was founded in 2010 and is known for its line of lightweight, humanoid robotic arms, which are used in a variety of industries, including retail and aerospace.
Not to be outdone, British AI and robotics developer Humanoid in September unveiled what it says is the United Kingdom’s first humanoid robot for industrial use. Built in just seven months, the HMND 01 Alpha prototype has completed two commercial proofs-of-concept (POCs) and is on track for commercial deployment within the next 12 months, according to company leaders, who say their target audience is warehouses, logistics hubs, and retail facilities. The robot is designed to work alongside humans and will be available on a robots-as-a-service (RaaS) basis.
“[In logistics], HMND 01 can take on repetitive, physically demanding tasks such as picking and sorting goods, machine feeding, kitting, loading and unloading inventory, and supporting packaging and fulfillment,” company leaders said in a press release. “By working alongside people in environments designed for humans, the robot boosts throughput, reduces errors, and improves working conditions—all without the costly infrastructure changes typical of traditional automation.”
HMND 01 Alpha is a wheeled robot, meaning that it has a torso, head, and arms but moves via a wheeled base. The robot can travel up to four and a half miles per hour and carry payloads of up to approximately 33 pounds. Humanoid said its Beta wheeled robot is scheduled for launch in the third quarter of 2026.
U.S.-based robotics giant Boston Dynamics has also taken recent steps on the humanoid development front. This past spring, the company announced a partnership with South Korean electronic components company LG Innotek that will help its humanoid robot, Atlas, see better. The companies will integrate LG Innotek’s newest vision-sensing components into the robot, allowing it to detect and perceive its surroundings, including in low-visibility conditions and dark environments, the companies said.
