Iceland Warns Slower AMOC Is A Security Threat To The Nation

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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, often referred to as AMOC, is frequently erroneously known as the Gulf Stream. It pumps warm water from the tropics through the Caribbean and then up the eastern seaboard of the United States. That’s the Gulf Stream part. Then it gets steered east by Nova Scotia and Newfoundland toward Iceland and the rest of Europe.

It is fair to say that the AMOC is a major factor in the climate of those European countries. Without it, they would be much colder, on average, than they are today. Farming would be made more difficult and Europeans would spend much more money heating their homes. Ports that are ice-free today would be frozen over, interrupting shipping to and from the Continent. That would have a significant knock-on effect on the economies of those countries.

Iceland Declares AMOC Loss An Existential Threat

On November 12, 2025, the Iceland Review reported that the government of Iceland has declared the slowing or collapse of the AMOC to be a national security threat to the country and has added the potential failure of that ocean current to the agenda of the country’s National Security Council. The move will allow authorities to coordinate response plans across ministries that are responsible for food and energy supplies, infrastructure, and transport resilience.

In an email to Reuters, Climate Minister Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson said,“It is a direct threat to our national resilience and security,” adding that the decision to put the matter on that agenda is the first time a specific climate process has been treated as a potential “existential risk” to Iceland. “If it collapses, winter temperatures across Northern Europe could plummet to new cold extremes, bringing far more snow and ice.”

Scientists have warned for years that melting Arctic ice and freshwater runoff from Greenland could destabilize the AMOC, which plays a crucial role in moderating Europe’s winter temperatures. A breakdown of the system could bring severe cold to Northern Europe and disrupt global rainfall patterns that millions depend on. The collapse of the AMOC 12,000 years ago is what triggered the last ice age.

The Science Is Clear

In October, the Nordic Council of Ministers gathered 60 experts in Reykjavík to assess the societal impacts of a potential AMOC collapse. Findings from that meeting are expected shortly. Researchers in other nations are also sharpening their focus on the issue of the AMOC. Ireland’s meteorological service has briefed the government and parliament, Norway is expanding its studies, and the UK has committed £81 million to research climate tipping points.

“The tipping point may be much closer than we think,” warned climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. He told the press recently, the results of the latest research is “quite shocking, because I used to say that the chance of AMOC collapsing as a result of global warming was less than 10%.”

“These numbers are not very certain, but we are talking about a matter of risk assessment where even a 10% chance of an AMOC collapse would be far too high. We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so. That is quite a shocking finding as well and why we have to act really fast in cutting down emissions,” he added.

Prof Sybren Drijfhout of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute was one of the authors of the latest study. He said, “Even in some intermediate and low emission scenarios, the AMOC slows drastically by 2100 and completely shuts off thereafter. That shows the shutdown risk is more serious than many people realize. Observations in the deep [far North Atlantic] already show a downward trend over the past five to 10 years, consistent with the models’ projections.”

Ice Ages & Heat Waves

It may seem contrary to be worrying about a new ice age in Europe at a time when record heat waves are contributing to the premature deaths of people all across Europe. No doubt the MAGAlomaniacs will jump on this news to support their cockamamie theories that climate change is a hoax and the Earth is actually cooling. And oh, by the way, the sun really does revolve around the Earth.

Recently, CleanTechnica executive editor Zachary Shahan reported on the potential disruption of the AMOC and its consequences. In that piece he quoted from The Guardian, which said, “Scientists have warned previously that AMOC collapse must be avoided ‘at all costs’. It would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50 cm to already rising sea levels.”

50 centimeters, for those who still think in pecks, quarts, and feet, is equal to about 20 inches. That would be enough to swamp many world cities, as Carolyn Fortuna wrote recently in an article about how Boston is dealing with the inexorable rise of the oceans.

The potential ripple effects are broad. Scientists say a collapse could destabilize long-standing rainfall patterns that millions of subsistence farmers rely on across Africa, India, and South America, and could accelerate warming and ice loss in Antarctica. “Sea ice could affect marine transport; extreme weather could severely affect our capabilities to maintain any agriculture and fisheries, which are central to our economy and food systems,” Johannsson added.

Governments React

Nordic and European governments are taking the warnings seriously. A workshop funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers in October, dubbed “Nordic Tipping Week,” convened about 60 experts to assess societal impacts and is finalizing recommendations. Scientists from more than 30 universities and international organizations recently sounded the alarm about the accelerating thawing of the world’s frozen spaces.

“There are tons of research on the likelihood of when exactly things are going to happen,” said Aleksi Nummelin, a physical oceanographer at the Finnish Meteorological Institute, cited by Reuters. “There is much less on what the actual societal impact is.”

Columbia 1 reports that some national weather and climate agencies have briefed political leaders and are boosting research. Ireland’s weather service said it briefed the country’s prime minister last year and a parliamentary committee last month. Norway’s environment ministry said it is funding research to deepen understanding before deciding whether to classify AMOC as a security risk.

Scientists caution that uncertainty remains about exactly when and how a collapse could occur. But with Greenland losing ice at accelerating rates and fresh meltwater increasingly entering the North Atlantic, some researchers say the possibility of large scale disruption cannot be ignored. “Iceland cannot afford to wait for definitive, long term research before acting,” Johannsson said.

Fear, Loathing, & Ice

Most of us don’t remember the last ice age, but researchers suggest that in Europe, people moved to the rim of the Mediterranean to escape the ice. Given the hysteria about migrants and scary foreigners eating cats in Springfield, Ohio that has incited hatred of “the other” in nations around the world, it is not hard to imagine that when those in northern climes attempt to escape the glaciers next time, they will be slaughtered at the borders they are trying to cross.

Hopefully the next species to inhabit the Earth after humans have sacrificed themselves on the altar of greed will be more tolerant of each other.