Indian crude oil refiners are stepping up Russian crude purchases ahead of the November 21 deadline for new US sanctions on Moscow’s oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, even as the government maintains a cautious silence on plans to navigate any potential disruptions.
Data from global analytics firm Kpler shows India imported 1.62 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in October, nearly unchanged from September. Arrivals are expected to rise as refiners rush to land contracted cargoes before sanctions take effect later this month.
Public and private refiners including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum, and Nayara Energy have frontloaded Russian shipments to ensure adequate supplies. Nayara, backed by Rosneft, met almost its full crude requirement in October after months of constrained inflows.
The sanctions, imposed by the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), aim to tighten restrictions on Russia’s energy sector amid the Ukraine conflict. They target companies and financial entities involved in trading Russian oil.
Government officials said India will continue to prioritise energy security and consumer affordability, emphasising that refiners operate on commercial considerations. Refiners are free to secure crude from viable sources, the source added.
If Russian supplies decline post-November, refiners are expected to source more oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Latin America, and West Africa. Notably, US crude shipments to India nearly tripled in October to around 568,000 bpd, Kpler data shows.
Experts said the government is unlikely to alter its stance despite mounting Western pressure, as India remains focussed on ensuring affordable fuel for its growing economy. Refiners are expected to continue diversifying sources to avoid any potential shortfall, while maintaining steady domestic prices. With India now the world’s third-largest crude consumer, officials say strategic flexibility and market-driven decisions will guide energy policy in the months ahead.
