The three main sectors of the U.S. trucking freight market continue to swing in different directions as carriers fight for revenue amid a cloudy economic outlook and muted peak forecast, according to report from AFS Logistics and TD Cowen.
Specifically, the latest data shows truckload carriers battling continued excess capacity and depressed rates, less than truckload (LTL) carriers wielding pricing power to maintain profitability in a soft market, and parcel carriers continuing to deploy so-called “self-help” in the form of surcharges and other pricing changes to squeeze more revenue from soft volumes.
“While the initial shock and awe of high-profile tariff announcements has subsided from earlier this year, businesses continue to grapple with the effects of shifting policies,” Andy Dyer, CEO, AFS, said in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2025 release of the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index. “We’re also in year three of an unusually long downward freight cycle, and carriers are relying on hard-won lessons of the past to prioritize profitability and hang on in a soft environment.”
Broken out by sector, parcel carriers have made their own luck with pricing changes, applying ground fuel surcharge rates of 26.1% year-over-year (YOY) in Q3 2025, adding surcharge structures for the holiday season, and shifting away from traditional package measurement estimates to a new model of rounding up—instead of down—to set rates by the size of each box.
And in LTL, carriers have continued to flex their pricing power, holding the cost per shipment steady at elevated levels since Q2 2023 – a period of nine straight quarters.
But times are tougher in truckload, which continues to face headwinds from sluggish demand and shifting trade policies, which do not indicate relief from the excess capacity that has suppressed rates for nearly three years. In Q4 2025, the truckload rate per mile index is projected to reach 6.1% above the January 2018 baseline – a modest 0.1% QOQ increase and 0.9% YOY increase, but the 11th straight quarter with rates at or below 6.2%.
