Trucking freight carriers are continuing to expect a recovery of long-depressed spot rates by the second half of 2025, according to industry survey data from financial analysts at TD Cowen.
The recovery is not here yet; while spot rates have been slightly higher lately than their recent two-year low points seen during the ongoing freight recession, the survey showed that contract rate expectations still remain at levels toward the bottom of that trough.
Still, overall consensus in the trucking industry points toward a pending recovery, even though market optimism is down slightly compared to TD Cowen’s previous quarterly trucking survey. Specifically, the survey found that 39% of participants are expecting a spot rate recovery to begin in the second quarter (down from 41% who said that in TD Cowen’s report last quarter), and 21% expect that spot rate recovery slightly later, in the third quarter (up from 14% last quarter).
Survey respondents also showed optimism about the nation’s broader economy, as business growth expectations rose sequentially over last quarter, reaching the highest level in the last five quarters. That showed that economic confidence spiked significantly in the firm’s first survey following the U.S. presidential election, with 67% of participants more confident in the economy than they were three months ago, up from 26% last quarter for that same question.
And despite persistent weakness in industrial demand, business confidence by trucking fleets also rose by another measure, as carriers that plan to order Class 8 trucks in the next 12 months increased 8 percentage points compared to last quarter, to 51%.
