While Christmas is always my favorite time of the year, I have always been something of a Scrooge when it comes to celebrating the New Year. It is traditionally a time of reflection, where we take stock of our lives and make resolutions to do better. I’ve always felt that I really didn’t need a calendar to remind me to kick my bad habits in favor of healthier routines. If I was not already doing something that was good for me, then making promises I probably won’t keep after a few weeks is not really helpful.
But as we turn the calendar to 2025, there is a lot to consider this new year. The election is behind us, and it will be interesting to see how supply chains react to the new administration. We’ve been told to expect sharp increases in tariffs, like those the president-elect issued in his first term. Will these cause the desired shift away from goods made in China?
What we have actually seen so far is a temporary surge in imports that began in late fall in anticipation of higher tariffs. This bump will be short-lived, however, unless consumer confidence remains unusually high.
Of course, the new administration’s aim with tariffs is to encourage companies to bring production back to America. Will we see manufacturing surge at home? Probably not. It took us decades to send our manufacturing to parts of the world where production was cheaper. I imagine it will take decades to bring it back, if it can ever really be fully brought back. We’ve become accustomed to those lower labor costs. So take your pick—higher tariffs or higher labor costs. Regardless of which route businesses choose, it will probably drive prices higher.
Labor itself will be interesting to watch this year. As I write this, the three-month extension of the master agreement between dock workers and East and Gulf Coast ports is due to expire in a few weeks—on Jan. 15, to be precise. While the two sides have resolved their wage disputes, the issue of automation remains a major sticking point, with the workers resisting the widescale implementation of automated systems.
And of course, we still have two wars raging overseas that have disrupted supply chains. Will we see peace this year, or will other trouble spots flare up?
And here at home, we’ve now been in a trucking recession for two years. What will happen in that sector in 2025? Hopefully, better days are ahead, but only ifconsumers keep spending, demand increases, fuel prices continue to drop, and capacity levels out. That’s a lot to ask.
Whatever this year holds for our supply chains, it is definitely setting up to be very interesting, to say the least.
