Even as stratospheric fuel costs have eased slightly this week due to sporadic progress on reopening ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, container shipping rates continue to climb higher in response to hot demand during an early peak season, according to industry analysis.
The early start to peak season has been driven by multiple factors, according to a note from Freightos: frontloading ahead of increased fuel surcharges (known as bunker adjustment factors), coming Section 122 tariff expirations and Section 301 tariff introductions for transpacific shippers, and July manufacturer price hikes.
As evidence, Freightos pointed to statistics like a 19% rise in transpacific rates to the U.S. West Coast (to more than $5,700/FEU) and a 13% rise in transatlantic rates to the U.S. East Coast (to $7,400/FEU). Spot rates have soared even higher, already surpassing last year’s peak season high.
The sharp June rate gains show that even as the global fleet continues to grow, significant increases in demand and shipper urgency are still enough to push spot prices to “very elevated levels,” Freightos said. That shipper urgency has been sparked by variables such as a fuel price-adjusted elevated starting point, Red Sea diversions, and peak season congestion causing delays and likewise effectively reducing capacity.
A similar message came from freight broker C.H. Robinson, which found that ocean shipping conditions have tightened faster than expected, and the outlook is that the market will likely get worse for shippers before it improves.
“We’re seeing booking activity pull forward across Trans-Pacific lanes as shippers position inventory earlier and react to expected cost increases,” C.H. Robinson’s president of global forwarding, Mike Short, said in a release. “Peak season has effectively started early, and it’s shrinking the window to secure preferred departures. Shippers aren’t just competing for space right now, they’re competing for the right sailing.”
