Even as the U.S. begins a campaign of tumultuous tariff increases, global trade growth is likely to continue, “but at a much slower pace,” according to a study from DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business.
Recent forecasts predict goods trade will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029, which is roughly aligned with GDP growth and represents modestly faster trade growth compared to the previous decade. That scenario predicts that even if the new U.S. administration implements all of its proposed tariff increases and other countries retaliate, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years – but at a much slower pace.
“The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 reveals highly encouraging insights,” John Pearson, CEO DHL Express said in a release. “There is still significant potential for trade growth in advanced and emerging economies worldwide. It’s impressive to see how international trade continues to withstand every conceivable challenge, from the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts.”
Between 2024 and 2029, just four countries are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed (growth rate) and scale (absolute amount) of trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. India also stands out as the country with the third largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional global trade), behind China (12%) and the United States (10%).
According to DHL, the study includes several reasons for optimism about the future of global trade despite a turn toward more restrictive U.S. trade policies. First, most countries continue to pursue trade as a key economic opportunity, and U.S. trade barriers could strengthen ties among those various other countries. Second, many of Trump’s tariff threats may end up different than originally proposed or delayed to prevent a spike in domestic inflation. And third, the U.S. share of world imports currently stands at 13%, and its share of exports is 9% – enough for U.S. policies to have substantial effects on other countries but not enough to unilaterally determine the future of global trade.
“While threats to the global trading system must be taken seriously, global trade has shown great resilience because of the large benefits that it delivers for economies and societies,” Steven Altman, Senior Research Scholar and Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, said. “While the U.S. could pull back from trade – at a significant cost – other countries are not likely to follow the U.S. down that path because smaller countries would suffer even more in a global retreat from trade.”
