PICTURE COURTESY : KSL TV
After Helen another major hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida in just two weeks killing hundreds and generating billions of dollars in economic damages. Human-caused climate change may have influenced the strength of these phenomena (especially through “rapid intensification”) and the resulting economic damages.
According to Climate Central-Warming oceans are fueling stronger tropical cyclones — the most costly weather disasters in the U.S. Warmer sea surface temperatures may contribute to an increased fraction of tropical cyclones that undergo rapid intensification. Rapidly intensifying hurricanes can be challenging to forecast, contributing to their high costs. From 1980 to 2023, 177 landfalling Atlantic tropical cyclones rapidly intensified. Most (70%) of the 63 total billion-dollar tropical cyclones in the U.S. since 1980 rapidly intensified.
Warmer oceans fuel stronger, more costly hurricanes –
- Sea surface temperatures influence the weather we experience on land. Warm water is a necessary ingredient for tropical cyclones. About 80% of major hurricanes (Category 3-5) undergo rapid intensification — defined as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt (about 35 mph) in a 24-hour period. Helen and Milton hurricanes also were rapidly intensified.
- According to the climate central report-June 2024 marked 15 consecutive months of record-breaking global sea surface temperatures. From 1980 to 2023, 177 landfalling Atlantic tropical cyclones rapidly intensified above the 30 kt threshold.
- Since April 2023, global sea surface temperatures have been continuously hotter than any period on record — and by a wide margin. Which means that the highly active hurricane season will likely continue in the Atlantic till 30th November.
- Atmospheric and oceanic conditions have set the stage for an extremely active hurricane season that could rank among the busiest on record.
With the peak of hurricane season quickly approaching, NOAA’s National Weather Service urges everyone to know their risk; prepare for threats like damaging winds, storm surge and inland flooding from heavy rainfall; and to have a plan to evacuate. Forecasters from NOAA’s national weather service Climate Prediction Center updated the number of expected named storms to 17-24 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 8-13 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 4-7 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy