At the halfway mark of 2026, U.S. small- and mid-size enterprises (SMEs) are recalibrating to a landscape defined by sticky inflation, ongoing tariff uncertainty, and an accelerating, but uneven, adoption of AI, according to a study from DHL.
Researchers found that SMEs remain broadly confident about the rest of 2026, yet margin pressure from tariffs, rising costs, and sustainability demands is reshaping priorities and investment decisions, according to a survey over 400 SME decision-makers across a variety of industries.
For example, for U.S. SMEs considering international expansion, tariffs and shifting trade policies remain the single greatest deterrent to going global: 35% cite import duties and regulations as their top hurdle, eclipsing logistics challenges (18%), finding reliable local partners or suppliers (13%), market competition (10%), and geopolitical issues (10%).
Reflecting that challenge, 53% of respondents say they have delayed or reconsidered expansion plans this year, and 42% said they will not pursue new foreign markets in the second half of 2026.
And rising expenses are dominating business planning. Nearly eight in ten SMEs (78%) say tariffs and trade restrictions have driven up their costs, and almost half of those firms (45%) report an increase in business costs by 10% or more this year. As a result, two-thirds (66%) have already raised prices in 2026—16% significantly and 50% slightly—while another 4% expect to follow suit before year-end.
Seeking solutions, SMEs say technology could also help with growth and reducing costs, yet only 7% selected AI or automation as their top investment priority. And 43% are not using AI at all. The good news for the workforce is that those SMEs that are using AI are using it to enhance (not replace) people; just 2% deploy the technology with the explicit goal of reducing headcount. The findings suggest many SMEs still view AI as either too complex or too resource-intensive to implement, despite its potential business benefits.
But despite those external headwinds, most SMEs have proven more adaptable than they anticipated when setting 2026 plans and goals. Six months into the year, more than one-third of respondents reported outperforming their 2026 business plans: 14% say they are “far exceeding expectations,” and another 24% are “slightly exceeding” them. An additional 36% indicate they are meeting forecasts, while 21% are running slightly behind and just 5% describe results as “significantly below expectations.”
“One of the most striking findings from our Mid-Year 2026 SME Survey is just how optimistic U.S. small and medium-sizes businesses are right now, which is not something you’d necessarily expect given the environment,” Greg Hewitt, CEO, DHL Express U.S., said in a release.
“Tariff policy is still evolving, inflation has proven stickier than most projected, energy costs have spiked again, and global conflicts are adding new layers of uncertainty. And yet, 85% of SMEs say they’re confident in meeting their goals for the rest of the year. That’s not a number you manufacture. That reflects real operational discipline built up over several very hard years,” Hewitt said.
“That said, the pressures are real. Nearly eight in ten SMEs tell us tariffs and trade restrictions have pushed their costs higher, and two-thirds have already passed some of that on to customers. The margin squeeze is forcing businesses to make sharper decisions about where and how they grow internationally; they’re not abandoning global ambition but recalibrating it,” he said.
