This year’s hurricane season has the potential to be even worse than the 2023 session, which ranked as the fourth most active hurricane season on record, according to a University of Arizona hurricane prediction model.
The 2023 hurricane season saw 20 named storms and three major hurricanes from the Atlantic basin. That mark could be eclipsed when the new season starts in about a month, running from June 1 to November 30.
“We are predicting five major hurricanes and 21 named storms over the North Atlantic,” said Xubin Zeng, professor in the university’s Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences. The team’s prediction is specifically for the North Atlantic basin, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast. It does not apply to hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific, which affects Mexico and occasionally the southwestern U.S.
One reason for the increased activity is that last year’s hurricane season was impacted by El Niño, a climate pattern that results in an above average sea surface temperatures over the eastern Pacific. The 2024 hurricane season will most likely see a La Niña climate pattern or the periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific.
According to the researchers, La Niña favors the formation of a greater number of stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic basin because during La Niña, the intensity of winds in the atmosphere’s upper levels over the Atlantic weakens. There is no significant change in the speed or direction of those winds with respect to their height, allowing the development of more intense hurricanes.
In the prediction model, the five major hurricanes predicted by the team for 2024 could end up being Category 3, 4 or 5, with Category 5 being the strongest, marked by winds greater than 157 mph and bearing the potential to cause catastrophic wind damage and significant loss of life. Zeng’s team has forecast that in addition to the five major hurricanes, there will be six Category 1 or 2 hurricanes. That makes a total of 11 hurricanes, while the historical annual average of hurricanes has been seven. The team also predicts 21 tropical storms, while the historical average has been 14.
