The Trump administration’s latest “reciprocal tariffs” will shrink the global markets for technology devices such as servers, smartphones, and notebooks, according to a downward revision of the 2025 shipment outlook from analyst firm TrendForce.
The Taiwan-based firm said it has revised its previous sales forecasts due to the lack of macroeconomic improvement since 2024, coupled with the inflationary and recessionary risks posed by these new tariffs.
However, the accuracy of that prediction could change, due to market confusion about a White House provision allowing exemption from tariffs for goods with more than 20% “U.S. value,” since that phrase is not a standard term among economists.
“TrendForce notes that supply chain players are still evaluating how to absorb increased production costs. Whether U.S. value will be assessed based on brand nationality or manufacturing origin remains a key point of concern for the industry,” the firm said.
Accordingly, TrendForce presented two revised forecast scenarios: In the base case, the 20% U.S. value is interpreted as brand-based—meaning American brands are more likely to secure exemptions for complete systems or finished products. But in the worst case, retaliatory tariffs from other countries escalate the trade war, and the U.S. value is defined strictly based on the manufacturing location, which significantly increases the risk of market contraction.
