Volatile tariff policies and shifting demand patterns have complicated this year’s peak shipping season, placing significant pressure on ocean freight and air freight carriers, according to the “Asia-Pacific Freight Market Report” from third-party logistics provider (3PL) Dimerco Express Group.
“October is a turning point for global logistics,” said Kathy Liu, vice president of Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group, in a statement. “Peak-season demand, layered with geopolitical uncertainty and tariff changes, is creating one of the most complex supply chain environments we’ve seen in years. Businesses must stay agile, plan early, and diversify their logistics strategies to mitigate disruptions.”
As shippers reassess their sourcing and routing decisions amid higher tariffs and rising geopolitical instability, trans-Pacific trade lanes have seen a softening in demand that has placed downward pressure on global container spot rates. For example, Shanghai–North Europe spot rates are down 45% over the past ten weeks, says the report.
Carriers have responded by aggressively cutting capacity. According to the report, carriers have increased “blank sailings”—or the cancellation of scheduled voyages—by 60% since late September. But the cancellations have had little impact on rates. Overcapacity looks to be a long-term concern as new vessel orders continue to come online. New ships now accounting for 30% of the global fleet, according to the report. As a result, major carriers are seeing their margins fall to their lowest level in 18 months.
Air freight concerns
Meanwhile air freight networks are also under stress. Unlike ocean freight, air freight has seen tightened capacity. Ongoing China–Europe rail disruptions have temporarily increased demand for air freight, while flight cancellations due to Typhoon Ragasa has led to a backlog of shipments. At the same time, carriers have seen an increase in demand in Southeast Asia, particularly Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore.
“With high-tech, AI [artificial intelligence], and semiconductor production increasing in these countries, more finished goods are being shipped out,” says Liu. “As a result, we expect capacity pressure at major transit hubs including Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Korea.”
The October report also highlights growing geopolitical risks. Political protests, regulatory changes, and trade negotiations could further destabilize supply chain operations. Additionally, Dimerco expects congestion and transportation costs to increase in the near term due to the annual factory closures that occur during China’s National Golden Week holiday, which begins today, as well as ongoing customs slowdowns.
