It seems that every year an exciting new technology breaks onto the scene amid a swirl of claims about its potential toupend traditional practicesand transform the field of supply chain management. Some ultimately live up to the hype, while others gradually fade into history.
But it’s rarely apparent at the start which are which. And even the “real deal” technologies can take years—if not decades—to prove their worth. All that confusion makes it hard for companies to decide which innovations to invest in—never mind when.
That’s where the Hype Cycle comes in. Created by the research and advisory firm Gartner, the Hype Cycle model provides a graphical representation of the lifecycle stages a technology goes through from introduction to widespread adoption and maturity. Gartner produces Hype Cycle reports for over a thousand different technologies each year to help business leaders gauge the maturity and adoption rate of emerging technologies and make informed investment decisions.
To learn more about this tool and how managers can use it in their decision-making, we recently turned to Dwight Klappich, vice president and fellow with Gartner’s supply chain practice. Klappich, who is widely considered a leading expert on supply chain management technologies and best practices, has more than 40 years of experience in the field, including nearly 25 with Gartner. And it turns out that he’s not just a tech maven; he’s also a musician. Klappich plays a mean trombone and for years has played with various symphonies and jazz ensembles.
Klappich recently spoke with DC Velocity Senior Editor Victoria Kickham for an episode of the “Logistics Matters” podcast.
Q: To begin, could you describe Gartner’s Hype Cycle and what’s involved in the research around it?
A: Sure. Simply put, the Hype Cycle plots the evolving maturity of emerging technologies over time. They start on the far left with what we call an “innovation trigger,” which is when raw technologies first emerge. From here, technologies will gain momentum in both interest and hype, and they will progress to the “peak of inflated expectations.” Because of overhype, technologies will slide down into the “trough of disillusionment,” from which they will slowly emerge as the technologies evolve and improve. Finally, these technologies will mature and can progress all the way to the right, to what we call the “plateau of productivity.” That’s when they’re fully mature.
Gartner recognized a long time ago that as technologies emerge, they are often overhyped. They are almost promoted as if they’re going to solve world hunger. A good example of that is blockchain, which several years ago was one of those overhyped technologies. The Hype Cycle [framework] can help users understand when the best time for them is, if ever, to pursue these emerging technologies.
Q: Are there ways that supply chain professionals can use the Hype Cycle in their work?
A: Yes, I think the Hype Cycle is particularly important for supply chain organizations to understand because they always have projects and constrained budgets to spend on them. One of the purposes of the Hype Cycle is to help companies to understand where best to invest their limited capital to make sure that those projects drive the greatest value at the lowest possible risk.
First off, we tell companies to be brutally honest with who they are as a company and to understand how risk-tolerant they are in considering these new technologies. If you’re not the type of organization that’s willing to put capital at risk, then just wait. Don’t invest in those early technologies, because while they might be great technologies, just the early nature might make these riskier or cost more. In contrast, early adopters are more willing and equipped to make exploratory investments. They often have innovation labs, where they can experiment without penalties if projects don’t work out. So it’s really helpful to understand where those technologies are in the Hype Cycle and what are the right technologies for you at the right time.
Q: How do technologies vary along the Hype Cycle as they move from emerging to mature?
A: I often joke that it is like a roller coaster. It might take some time for a technology chugging up the left side to get to the peak, but then it’ll come down the backside very fast, like a roller coaster. To be frank, some technologies do crash and burn, and they disappear often, never to be heard from again. Others go into the trough of disillusionment after being overhyped, and because people are left being a bit skeptical of that technology, they slowly emerge from the ashes like the mythical phoenix rising.
A good example of that in our logistics space is RFID [radio-frequency identification]. Back in the early 2000s, it was on the upslope and reached the hype peak around 2004 and 2005. And then, as most of us know, by 2006 and 2007, RFID just crashed and burned. All of the early projects that were going on back then just fell by the wayside. But you look at it now, there’s a lot of activity going on in RFID, but no one’s talking about it. This is because we finally figured out what the right RFID use cases are.
Q: Gartner recently released its Hype Cycle report for mobile robots and drones, which indicated that adoption of those technologies was on the rise as they mature. Could you summarize the key takeaways from the report?
A: I think there are a few things: There are several innovations that we’ve identified as being transformational. These are things that are going to have radical opportunity for change long term, but they’re early now. A perfect example of that is humanoid working robots. While we think they’re going to be transformational and there is a lot of potential for these, we think this is a technology that will take at least 10 years before it gets to mainstream adoption.
This type of robot is a perfect example of where the Hype Cycle comes in. I’ve had several customers come to me saying that their CEO read something in The Wall Street Journal on the Tesla announcement [that it would build and market humanoid robots], and now they want to get involved in humanoid robots. They ask, “What should we do?” And my comment is that if the CEO really wants to do it, I think it’s OK, but there are only a few places where we see them [being] really productive—and even these are at best minimally viable solutions. Yet it certainly is an alluring technology.
And then there are a bunch of other technologies that have come over that peak, particularly in what we call the “intralogistics smart robot space”—a name we’ve coined for the category of smart robots used in logistics, warehousing, and manufacturing. These would be things like mobile goods-to-person robots, collaborative picking robots, hive robotic systems, and sorting robots. A lot of those are less risky, and I think mainstream buyers should now be looking at these kinds of technologies. So they’re not necessarily going to transform your business, but they have a lot of upside and business-value potential. We also see some of the supporting technologies moving farther to the right. Some of those robots are now on the slope into full maturity at this point in time.
Q: Based on your latest report, where are mobile robots and drones, in particular, most commonly being used? Are there particular industries and types of operations that benefit most?
A: Yes, absolutely. Manufacturing has and continues to be the largest consumer of robots. I’d say that’s both for traditional industrial robots and robotic arms, and now also mobile robots. This is partly because manufacturers have years of experience with robotic technologies and AGVs [automated guided vehicles], which are like the dumb precursors to autonomous mobile robots. Manufacturers have been using these for 50 years. They really understand how to look at processes and see what should be automated. So overall, manufacturing is and continues to be very strong, and there are tens of thousands of robots already deployed in manufacturing. [Editor’s note:For more on Gartner’s 2024 Hype Cycle for Mobile Robots and Drones report, see our infographic here.]
Q: What are some of the applications for warehouses and distribution centers?
A: So while we see a lot more opportunity in manufacturing right now, logistics continues to be very strong with some different kinds of robots. There are lots of processes in your warehouse that could benefit from robots, but they’re going to be different.
Some interesting solutions address truck unloading. It’s been a hot topic over the last year or so, and I think it makes sense. It’s labor-intensive. It’s a terrible job. I mean, could you imagine you’re unloading cartons off the back of a truck in Houston in July when it’s 140 degrees in the truck? So now we see solutions from Boston Dynamics and Pickle for unloading cases, and palletizing and depalletizing [solutions] from Dexterity. And then other solutions for unloading palletized goods from providers that include Fox Robotics and Gideon.
I would say the areas with the highest volume of use in distribution are picking applications, which tend to also be labor-intensive. There are mobile goods-to-person systems from vendors like GreyOrange and Geek+. These are shelf-based systems, where robots bring goods to people stationed in one place. And there are also the collaborative picking solutions like Locus robots or robots from 6 River Systems, which is now part of Ocado Intelligent Automation, where robots and people collaborate on picking and transport. We see a lot of demand because of the labor tied to those processes.
For the companies with bigger budgets, we will see a lot of interest in what we call hive or grid robotics, where you have some sort of structure where robotics move cases and totes [from storage locations in the grid] to pick stations where humans or robots pick the items. These come from vendors like AutoStore, Exotec, and Attabotics. So there is a lot of interest in a variety of systems for warehouses.
Finally, while robots are most popular in manufacturing, basic transportation of goods within a warehouse is a strong use case. There are multiple vehicle types—from robots where the goods ride on top to tuggers that pull trains of goods and finally to forked vehicles like Vecna’s recently announced autonomous order picker pallet jack.
Q: To wrap up, what advice would you give supply chain professionals as they continue to navigate the automation, robotics, and even the AI landscape?
A: I think the first thing I would say is that even though we’re talking about the Hype Cycle, don’t be afraid to consider robots. Overall, we’re already approaching about a million robots in the intralogistics smart robot space, with the biggest user of those kinds of robots being Amazon. For most companies, there is likely a fairly mature solution for what you want to do. So don’t be afraid of it.
[But before they begin their automation journey,] companies first need to map out their processes, such as inbound processes, like receiving and putaway; storage and inventory management processes; and things like that. This will help you understand where there are opportunities for automation.
Next, companies must go into this with the belief that over the next several years, they will not buy just one robot that’s going to do everything; they will have multiple robots from multiple companies, and they will need some additional software to coordinate all of the activities of that heterogeneous fleet of robots.
Again: Don’t be afraid. There are opportunities and plenty of proven solutions you could invest in today to help your business.
