For the foreseeable future, supply chain managers should view disruption and volatility as the norm rather than as an exception, according to the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals’ (CSCMP’s) Annual State of Logistics Report, which was released today.
“The changes we’re seeing aren’t temporary disruptions,” explains Korhan Acar, partner in the Strategic Operations practice of Kearney and lead author of the 2026 State of Logistics Report. “Tariff complexity, geopolitical uncertainty, changing trade flows, AI [artificial intelligence] adoption, and new network designs are becoming permanent features of the logistics landscape. Companies are redesigning how they operate rather than waiting for the old environment to return.”
The State of Logistics Report—produced for CSCMP by the global consulting firm Kearney and sponsored by Penske Logistics—provides an annual snapshot of the health and direction of the logistics industry. This year’s report, titled “Forged in Disruption,” argues that external geopolitical shocks and trade policy changes are having a bigger impact on the logistics market than traditional concerns such as demand or capacity.
These factors are causing market fragmentation as rates and capacity diverge by lane or corridor, forcing many supply chains to reset how they are structured and operate. The companies that succeed in this environment will be the ones that build resilience, adaptability, and better, faster decision-making into their operations, according to Acar.
Understanding logistics costs
Source: “Forged in Disruption: CSCMP’s Annual State of Logistics Report,” 2026
Historically the State of Logistics Report has concentrated on quantifying changes in the logistics market. This year’s analysis found that U.S. business logistics costs (USBLC) totaled $2.40 trillion, down 1% year over year. (The figure above shows the breakdown in costs.) According to Kearney, this amount translates to 7.8% of nominal U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), a decline from 8.3% of nominal GDP in 2024 and 8.4% in 2023.
Prior to the pandemic, USBLC had been hovering around 7.4% to 8.1% of nominal GDP. There was some speculation last year that the rise in USBLC during 2023 and 2024 was an indication that the cost basis for logsitics was settling higher post-pandemic. This year’s figure, however, seem to disprove that speculation, says Acar. Instead, the industry may be seeing a return to those previous percentages.
Acar attributes the drop in costs to the decrease in ocean freight expenditures, which dropped 36% as rates stabilized and overcapacity persisted, and to soft demand.
Acar is quick to emphasize that although costs are down, complexity remains elevated.
Growing fragmentation
From a demand standpoint, transportation and logistics service providers will have to contend with global growth that is slower and more fragmented—with some regions, such as the United States and Southeast Asia, expected to grow while other such as Europe and the Middle East stagnate or even contract.
This uneven growth, layered on top of geopolitical disruption, is contributing to the structural shake-ups seen across major transportation modes and sectors. Here are a few key insights the report provides for each sector:
Trucking: U.S. truckload market has finally emerged from its prolong “freight recession” with motor freight expenditures growing 1.7%, according to the report. The recovery, however, was driven less by an increase in demand and more by the approximately 89,000 carriers that exited the market since 2022, which helped to tighten capacity. According to the report, the trucking sector now behaves less like a single national market and more like a collection of lane-level markets with pricing, capacity, and service reliability varying sharply by corridor.
Ocean shipping: Ocean shipping capacity was greater than demand in 2025, which helped to normalize rates after the highs of 2024. The overcapacity was so strong it helped to mitigate the effects of disruptions in the Red Sea, Panama Canal, and Black Sea. The imbalance will only persist into 2026 as even more new ships enter the global fleet. While rates may spike for short periods on some lanes due to geopolitical developments in areas such as the Strait of Hormuz, the structural overcapacity will continue to keep cap rates capped for the long term.
Rail: Last year was challenging for the rail industry with Class I revenues remaining essentially flat, carload volumes growing only marginally, and intermodal revenue declining. If the proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern goes through, the industry could see a significant structural change as the deal would create a single coast-to-coast railroad. The deal does faces strong resistance from other Class I railroads and many shippers, who are concerned about reduced competition, higher rates, and potential service degradation.
Air freight: The market saw record cargo volumes in 2025 as global demand grew by 3.4%. Yet that growth did not occur evenly across the global market. Rather some corridors—such as Asia-Europe surged—while others—such as Asia-North America—contracted due to tariffs and the end of the de minimis exemption. Furthermore, the demand growth was outpaced by capacity growth, which kept rates low. The report suggests demand will continue to be strong in 2026 but warns that rising fuel costs, the need to comply with Sustainable Aviation Fuel requirements in key markets, and geopolitical uncertainty could inject fresh volatility.
Parcel and last-mile delivery: The U.S. parcel and last-mile delivery sector saw significant changes in 2025. Right after the removal of the de minimis exemption, daily volumes for shipments from China dropped by 85%. Many companies have now shifted to a U.S.-based fulfillment model, and demand for parcel and last-mile services continues to be supported by the U.S.’s $1.23 trillion e-commerce market. After years of chasing increasingly shorter delivery times, the market has split between ultra-low-cost but slower regional delivery and premium, ultra-fast delivery. Costs have also risen with carriers imposing a 5.9% general rate increase and additional fuel and accessorial surcharges. Further disruption is sure to occur driven by the recent creation of Amazon Supply Chain Services.
Third-party logistics (3PL): According to the report, 3PL providers are facing an inflection point. The growing economic and geopolitical complexity is driving shippers to seek providers that can go beyond simply shipping freight to coordinating modes, data, and decisions across their supply chains. Providers are responding by expanding geographic coverage and deploying technology to improve visibility and reduce transaction costs.
Freight forwarding: The freight forwarding space has seen their margins from brokering freight squeezed due to increased competition from digital platforms and direct carrier sales. As a result, they are responding in a similar fashion as 3PL providers by broadening the services they offer to include customs brokerage, trade compliance consulting, warehousing, and supply chain financing.
Warehousing: Post pandemic, the warehousing market experienced a tumultuous time of labor shortages, rent spikes, and panic stockpiling. While those trends have settled down, the sector won’t be returning to a pre-2020 definition of normal. Companies are no longer scrambling to find all types of warehouse workers, but they are still struggling with turnover rates of 40% to 50% and filling higher-skilled technical roles. Meanwhile on the real estate side, vacancies are now at 7.1%, which is significantly higher than the extremely low vacancy rates of 2022, and new construction has slowed to the lowest level in nearly a decade. Finally, inventory management policies have moved away from the broad stockpiling approach of the pandemic era to more targeted buffer inventories for specific products where there is a risk of disruption.
Additional pressures
While geopolitical volatility is forcing companies to restructure their operating models, the rapid adoption of AI is adding a second layer of pressure. “The case for AI is stronger today than it has ever been because we’re moving beyond theory and seeing measurable results,” says Acar. “Organizations are using AI to improve forecasting, automate workflows, optimize transportation, and enhance warehouse operations—the focus has shifted from potential to proven value.”
Yet adoption remains uneven. Some companies have embedded AI into core workflows, while others have only deployed narrow point solutions, such as tools that compare modes and carrier options for a single load. Kearney believes that figuring out how to embed AI into logisticians’ daily work will be a key structural focus for supply chain leaders this year. “AI will bring big benefits over time, but right now many companies are still working out where it truly makes sense in logistics,” Acar says.
At the same time, slower and asymmetrical global growth means chief supply chain officers and chief operating officers will face increasing pressure from CEOs to drive profitable growth, not just expand revenue. Instead of chasing only top-line gains, companies will be looking to grow while also improving margins and cash flow—areas where supply chain decisions can have outsized impact.
Yet in spite of all these pressures, Acar remains optimistic that supply chain executives’ ability to successfully make these structural shifts. “What is coming is resilience,” he insists, “Every logistician knows that every problem is just an opportunity in disguise. So, I suggest that next year’s report will be named, ‘Thriving in Disruption.’”
The report is available on CSCMP’s website free to CSCMP members and $299 for nonmembers.
