Retail sales grew in March after two straight months of declines, as consumers stocked up on goods before Trump Administration tariffs hit, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
The March results reflect consumer spending that came after President Donald Trump announced tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico in February but before he announced a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S trading partners on April 2 along with sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries, analysts said.
The reciprocal tariffs have since been suspended for 90 days, but additional tariffs on China have resulted in back-and-forth escalation between China and the U.S. Even before that, however, a survey conducted for NRF by Prosper Insights & Analytics found 46% of consumers said they were stocking up on household appliances, clothing and other items in early March because they were worried they would become more expensive because of tariffs.
“Retail sales increased in March but only moderately, and the spending came before the president’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a release. “The pullback we’ve seen the past few months comes despite strong economic fundamentals. A major factor appears to be driven by the uncertainty caused by tariffs. March’s increase is partly the result of stocking up to get ahead of tariffs. With the economic outlook unclear and the situation fluid, consumer sentiment is weakening, and many consumers are shifting disposable income into savings.”
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.6% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 4.75% unadjusted year over year in March, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with a decrease of 0.22% month over month and an increase of 3.38% year over year in February.
The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was up 0.4% month over month in March and up 5.07% year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.22% month over month and an increase of 4.11% year over year in February.
