Retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025 as consumers remain resilient despite higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates, and elevated consumer debt, according to a forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF).
Despite the overall increase, that economic turbulence could affect spending by consumers in lower income brackets much more than their wealthier neighbors, a pattern that economists call a “K-shaped” distribution.
But thanks to increased spending by high earners, that spending would still be a greater increase than last year, when holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024, totaling $972 billion.
“We head into the holiday season with strong spending momentum, as consumers remain the bright spot in the economy,” NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said. “At the same time, inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups.”
As they prepare for that scenario, retailers are hiring seasonal workers to meet consumer demand. NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with last year’s estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs.
NRF’s holiday forecast is based on economic modeling using various key economic indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation, and previous monthly retail sales releases. NRF’s calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.
