The future of cargo shipping patterns through the Red Sea remains uncertain this week, in the wake of the collapse of the eight-week old Israel-Hamas ceasefire and of recent U.S. military strikes against Houthi militia fighters in Yemen, according to an analysis by supply chain visibility provider Project44.
The latest developments come as global maritime freight carriers have wrestled with violent missile and drone attacks near the Suez Canal since the Houthi attacks began in late 2023, prompting many marine carriers to reroute around the southern horn of Africa, picking a slower but safer route.
Specifically, since the Houthi attacks began, ocean carrier transit times from Southeast Asia to the U.S. East Coast have increased by 47%, and to Europe by 33%. And the volume of freight shipping through the Suez Canal remains low, with 2024 seeing a 75% decrease in volume compared to 2023.
The Project44 analysis found that: “With the renewed hostility in the region, it is highly unlikely that major carriers will resume passage through the Red Sea any time in the foreseeable future. This means that transit times for key routes leveraging the Suez Canal will remain high, and any costs associated with shipments going around the Cape of Good Hope will remain in place.”
“The situation remains highly volatile, with ongoing military operations and diplomatic efforts to restore peace. Continuous monitoring of developments is essential for understanding the evolving dynamics of the conflict and its broader implications,” Project44 said.
As long as that situation persists, container vessels will continue to be the most affected, although bulk vessels and tankers have also been rerouting to avoid the Red Sea. General cargo vessels and Ro-Ro vessels have not been as severely impacted, but these vessel types already constitute a smaller portion of the traffic through the Suez Canal.
