Carriers are optimistic about market conditions in 2025, driven by the less challenging conditions that characterized the final quarter of 2024. That’s according to a recent survey from Bloomberg and freight marketplace Truckstop.
The groups polled owner-operators and small fleets about industry conditions and found that many were upbeat about market demand, freight rates, and the overall economy as following Q4.
“While many carriers feel that rates and demand have yet to reach optimal levels, there is growing optimism about the outlook,” Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in a statement announcing the findings. “We believe the trucking cycle has turned, which should drive better spot and contractual rates, as well as robust earnings for carriers this year.”
Among the findings, the authors said:
- Demand outlook is showing signs of improvement: Owner-operators are increasingly optimistic about the future following improved spot market conditions in Q4. Among respondents, 55% said they expect volume to increase over the next three to six months, marking a 15-point rise from Q3. Many carriers experienced a less challenging spot truckload market in Q4.
- Spot rates are seeing some reprieve: Sentiment around rates has improved over the past three months, according to our Q4 survey, with 51% of respondents expecting an increase in the next three to six months—a 22-point jump. This optimism is fueled by better market conditions, as Truckstop data shows spot rates rose 1.5% in Q4 and 7.8% year-over-year. Additionally, 13% of respondents reported rate growth compared to the previous year—a five-point increase from the Q3 survey.
- Carriers are still unclear about the path ahead: Trucker sentiment about the economy has improved, with 59% of respondents believing the U.S. is in or near a recession—down from 80% in Q3 2024. But uncertainty remains despite this more optimistic outlook, as 44% of respondents are unsure about their professional future in the next six months—a 9-point increase from the previous quarter. Further market tightening could help boost spot rates and encourage truckers to stay in the industry. Truckstop’s Market Demand Index increased 28% on average in Q4 2024 from Q4 2023, the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year gains.
“Our latest survey results indicate that demand is stabilizing, and conditions are becoming less challenging, leading to increased optimism among carriers,” Kendra Tucker, chief executive officer at Truckstop, said in the statement. “Truckstop is dedicated to equipping carriers with the tools they need to operate more efficiently and profitably, offering innovative solutions that help their businesses grow and adapt to industry changes.”
