After years of hot growth, American providers of last-mile delivery for big and bulky goods are adjusting to softer demand, according to a report from Armstrong & Associates (A&A) and the National Home Delivery Association (NHDA).
A&A estimates that compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the U.S. third-party logistics (3PL) big and bulky last-mile delivery market from 2017 through 2025 was 10.6%, but that figure will drop to 5.1% for the period from 2025 through 2027.
In dollar terms, A&A estimates the market will reach estimated revenues of $11.42 billion in 2026 and $12.34 billion in 2027.
The main reason for the change is consumer softness, with housing turnover at a 30-year low and furniture-store sales in decline. That’s significant because big and bulky demand is tightly linked to housing turnover and large-ticket discretionary spending. Those metrics have slowed in part because of wide swings in tariff policies, even after they stabilized in 2025 and 2026 after the courts struck down the IEEPA-based tariff regime, a decision the U.S. Supreme Court affirmed in February 2026, the report said.
