More than a quarter (26%) of trucking carriers would be willing to use artificial intelligence (AI) tools entirely instead of relying on human freight brokers, according to an industry survey from market analyst firm TD Cowen.
Given rapidly developing AI solutions, TD Cowen asked carriers if they would still use a broker if they had access to a tool that could bypass a broker and link to shippers’ APIs (application programming interfaces) to book them loads automatically.
The results showed that 26% of carriers stated they would use an AI tool to phase out their broker completely, according to the “1Q26 TD Cowen Carrier Survey.” And another 40% of carriers answered that they would use the AI tools for less complex loads, while continuing to rely on brokers for more complex lanes. Meanwhile, just 28% said they would continue to use a broker for all loads.
Researchers also asked why carriers would stick with human brokers despite the power of AI tools. Specifically, they asked carriers to rate the value proposition of their brokerage partners across the various functions they perform.
The top response was “personal relationships,” which is a positive sign for the long-term proposition of large public brokers, as this would be the hardest to simulate with automation, TD Cowen said. The second highest value for carriers was quick pay/invoice management.
The responses came as TD Cowen found rising expectations among carriers that contract rates will continue to rise, as the industry struggles to emerge from a three-year freight recession.
The survey found that carrier expectations for rate increases stepped up to 2.9% in Q1, up 90 basis points from the last quarter. Of contracts renegotiated in the last month, rate renewals more than doubled to 2.0% in 1Q, up from 0.8% last quarter. And carriers that believe the spot rate recovery has already started increased 11 basis points over Q4 of 2025.
According to TD Cowen, that “encouraging” rate momentum is being driven primarily by capacity exits—a shrinking pool of trucks available to haul loads—as opposed to incremental consumer demand strength.
However, the sector is not out of the woods yet, since inflationary pressures for industrials started to build even before the Iran War began on February 28, analysts said. At the same time, costs are rising: driver pay expectations in the Q1 survey jumped to the highest levels since 2022, to 5.2%, up 50bps sequentially. And a precipitous spike in diesel rates (+55% YTD) is also likely to pinch profit margins for truckload carriers in Q1.
