Amid Trump Administration policies on increased regulatory scrutiny of truck drivers, the U.S. the trucking industry is entering a new era defined not by the availability of freight capacity, but by the availability of capacity that can be deployed with confidence, according to a report from the payments network operator Triumph.
That shift comes as many drivers have been forced out of the sector by White House moves to tighten enforcement on commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs), English-language proficiency, and electronic logging device (ELD) compliance. Those moves appear to have helped shrink the freight-hauling capacity on U.S. highways, contributing to a nascent recovery from a three-year freight recession that featured stubbornly depressed rates. However, they may have gone so far that shippers, brokers, and third-party logistics providers (3PLs) are now struggling to find reliable carriers to haul their loads.
The increased regulatory scrutiny has contributed to a tougher barrier for entry for new carriers, Triumph says. And that means that risk to the broker or shipper ordering the load is becoming far more important than cost, Triumph said. That analysis comes from the “Triumph Mile Marker” report, which is based on transaction-level data from the Triumph Network, one of the largest payments networks in North America, that touches 7 out of every 10 transactions in brokered freight.
“For years, discussions about capacity centered on whether trucks and drivers existed,” said Ben Volkwyn, executive vice president, head of enterprise data and intelligence for Triumph. “Increasingly, the question isn’t whether capacity is available. It’s whether capacity is trustworthy.”
While freight markets have historically been shaped by cyclical shifts in supply and demand, the report suggests the industry may be experiencing a structural change. Regulatory oversight, carrier vetting practices, and risk-management requirements are becoming larger factors in determining which carriers can effectively participate in the market. As a result, the lowest-cost option may not always be the preferred option, creating new opportunities and challenges for brokers, carriers, and shippers alike.
According to Triumph’s analysis, enforcement activity, carrier verification requirements, and broader regulatory developments appear to be influencing freight market behavior in ways that become visible in transaction data before they are reflected in conventional market narratives. The report suggests the transportation industry is entering a new phase in which capacity is increasingly evaluated through the lens of compliance, risk, and operational readiness.
