The US grocery slowdown has entered a “decisive new phase of falling unit sales” as stretched American consumers pull back and buy fewer items, according to a report from Bain & Company and NielsenIQ.
The impact could hit broadly across the grocery logistics sector, including online retailers as well as value players from discounters and dollar stores to mass and club.
The slowdown in U.S. grocery began in mid-2025 with the emergence of a clear trend of negative unit growth. But Bain and NIQ report that it has accelerated since February, with units sold now having stepped down sharply, dropping by around 2% year-on-year in most of the subsequent four months up to June, and consistently across US regions.
That shift comes amid continuing increases in grocery bills, with grocery prices still climbing at a rate of 2% to 3% year-on-year. Overall, U.S. grocery units sold were down by 1.8% year-on-year in June, marking a nearly two percentage point deterioration in a single year.
No single shock is to blame for the grocery slowdown, but Americans have been trying to spend less as they’ve seen a growing impact of pressure on their pockets, Bain reports. One key factor was that participation in the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP) for lower-income households dropped sharply late last year, adding to existing stresses. More importantly, in March, gas prices then climbed by 20% across the U.S., in another sizeable hit to consumers’ weekly budgets already strained by inflation that has seen a 33% cumulative rise in grocery prices since 2019, broad-based price rises across spending categories, and falling growth in disposable incomes.
Those impacts show up in the numbers: in Bain’s latest Consumer Lab pulse survey, 80% of Americans reported trying to cut spending, with 28% actively trying to cut back on groceries. Among those trimming grocery bills, 56% are trading down to lower-priced brands, 49% are simply buying fewer items, and 44% are leaning harder on coupons and promotions.
Looking to the coming months, the grocers that pull ahead in coming months will be those that sharpen their value proposition, price sharply on the products shoppers, as well as AI agents, notice most, and use promotions, loyalty, and private brands with precision to build a value story consumers can trust.
“The data is unambiguous: U.S. grocery is in a genuine volume contraction, and the path back to growth is not just about low prices, but a value story that shoppers believe in and come back for,” said Kurt Grichel, head of Bain & Company’s Americas Retail practice and co-author of the report. “The grocers and manufacturers that invest now in sharpening that proposition will be positioned to take meaningful share once the broader, market-wide conditions affected by inflation, including from gas prices, eventually shift. Retailers that respond with precision – on assortment, promotion, and private label – will be best placed to capture the trips that are still up for grabs.”
