Joshua Henry, Laurie Metcalf, and John Lithgow.
Photo-Illustration: Vulture; Photos: Matthew Murphy, Emilio Madrid, Joan Marcus
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As we hurtle toward the Tony Awards this Sunday and wonder in which directions P!nk will hurtle around the stage of Radio City, we have a chance to reflect back on this year’s crop of Broadway shows and think, Wow, what a weird Tonys season. In most years, attention is first oriented around new musicals and secondarily new plays. But this year, the center of gravity in the major races has shifted over to the revivals, where breakout, conversation-starting shows lie, like Ragtime, Cats, Death of a Salesman, and Becky Shaw. The marquee category of Best Musical, on the other hand, has become a race between an imperfect slate of new work, none of which is a runaway hit — though that does, intriguingly, make for what feels like a closer race.
In the major acting categories, too, we’re seeing traditionally heated categories that are less charged. Best Actress in a Musical isn’t nearly as much of a nail-biter as last year’s Audra-Nicole experience. Others could break in any direction. Who on earth will win Featured Actress in a Musical?
As I worked through our predictions this year, I found myself falling back on a lot of assumptions about the tastes of Tony voters, but more than ever, I hope they prove me wrong. Make the topsy-turvy Tony experience this year part of the fun, and give us chaos this Sunday, please.
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Titaníque
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
In what’s been a less-than-blockbuster season for new work, I’m guessing voters gravitate toward the thing that looks the most like a straightforward musical. Though it’s based on a TV show, Schmigadoon!’s got classical homage and enough pedigree (see: producer Lorne Michaels) to make everyone comfortable — especially those who might elsewhere stumble over genre (Lost Boys), comedy (Titaníque), or scale and Britishness (Two Strangers).
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime
Richard O’Brien’s the Rocky Horror Show
A nail-biter that’s hard to gauge because many precursor awards, such as the Drama Desks, judged The Jellicle Ball when it was Off Broadway in a different season. My feeling is that Ragtime looks more important and political in the minds of voters, even though Jellicle, where my own heart lies, is all that and more.
The Balusters
Giant
Liberation
Little Bear Ridge Road
I’m also going state my personal preference here, maybe as a way of tricking the universe to defy me — I loved Liberation, which has just gotten a boost from winning the Pulitzer. It would thrill me if it were the winner, but I think voters may still prefer the less firmly constructed Giant, which lets them reward a hit that’s still running and congratulate themselves for tackling important issues.
Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Becky Shaw
Every Brilliant Thing
Fallen Angels
Oedipus
An award for Death of a Salesman means that we’ll probably see Scott Rudin return to the Tonys stage, which a few anonymous voters did tell my colleague Devon Ivie they struggled with — but the praise that this production has received makes it pretty undeniable. I just can’t imagine enough of a coalition forming around the bracing Becky Shaw (my pick) or Oedipus (which seems a likelier upset, if one is even possible).
Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Lear deBessonet, Ragtime
Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!
Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
In a just world, Levingston and Rauch’s refashioning of Cats would be undeniable, but it seems voters may really deny it because they like Ragtime that much.
Nicholas Hytner, Giant
Robert Icke, Oedipus
Kenny Leon, The Balusters
Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Whitney White, Liberation
A category that’s Mantello’s to lose, considering that he’s left a distinct mark on a canonical work, bringing Miller out of its typical staging and into a more impressionistic mode. (And voters love classics, especially when they can see a director’s mark.) I think it’d be fun if White upset here, and I imagine maybe a few voters loved Icke’s Oedipus clock, but Mantello’s gotta be the one.
Will Harrison, Punch
Nathan Lane, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
John Lithgow, Giant
Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing
Mark Strong, Oedipus
Lithgow’s performance in Giant is so much about how he wields his own persona — simultaneously enormous, cuddly, and threatening — that it seems hard to imagine someone else onstage. Lane, perhaps, if the Salesman love is that strong.
Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon, Bug
Susannah Flood, Liberation
Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels
Manville has been busy in London doing a different play (and crusading against phones) during Tonys season, but that doesn’t matter when you’re a revered Brit who brought the theater to haunted stillness with your big monologue. (Still, I’m pulling for Susannah Flood!)
Christopher Abbott, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime
Brandon J. Dirden, Waiting for Godot
Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Richard Thomas, The Balusters
The nominating committee wrongly underrewarded Second Stage’s revival of Becky Shaw, but Ehrenreich’s big, blistering stage debut has been such a talk of the town that I’m thinking (and hoping) he’ll get the prize. Am I underestimating Christopher Abbott because I could not sync up to his work in Salesman? Perhaps.
Betsy Aidem, Liberation
Marylouise Burke, The Balusters
Aya Cash, Giant
Laurie Metcalf, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
June Squibb, Marjorie Prime
Metcalf’s natural flint doesn’t make her the performer you’d expect to play Linda Loman, but it also makes her stand out here for having found a new take on Willy’s long-suffering wife. Plus, those who loved Little Bear Ridge Road may feel they’re also supporting that here.
Nicholas Christopher, Chess
Luke Evans, Richard O’Brien’s the Rocky Horror Show
Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime
If it’s not Joshua Henry, I’ll be so confused. He makes the Vivian Beaumont quake with his voice and feeling.
Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!
Stephanie Hsu, Richard O’Brien’s the Rocky Horror Show
Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Marla Mindelle, Titaníque
Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Levy’s performance is less universally praised than Henry’s, but it works for me and probably for the voters who love Ragtime — and there’s no one else here who seems to be making as strong of a case. (I just don’t think people take Titaníque that seriously.) I used to think this was a race between her and salad enthusiast Lea Michele!
Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys
André de Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Bryce Pinkham, Chess
Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime
Layton Williams, Titaníque
Even as a character without a first name (he’s Mother’s Young Brother, exhausting to type), Ross brings a real heft to Ragtime, and his second-act turn is kind of crucial to the music. De Shields, the sole Jellicle nominated, would be a potential upset, though he’s won recently enough for it to seem less likely, and I think it’d be fun if we gave Bourzgui an award for smoldering through the impediment that is his ’80s blond wig.
Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Hannah Cruz, Chess
Rachel Dratch, Richard O’Brien’s the Rocky Horror Show
Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime
Do I think Ragtime wins in every acting category? I … guess so? Some are imagining that Shoshana Bean will finally get awards recognition here, though I’m not feeling there’s enough depth to her Lost Boys role to get there, and Lewis, though I struggled with her delivery, gets big, heart-wrenching solos in a role that’s won Audra McDonald a Tony in the past.
The Lost Boys, David Hornsby and Chris Hoch
Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul
Titaníque; Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, and Tye Blue
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
You’re all sinners in the eyes of an angry god. (Fine, here’s a place where, à la the Oscar’s screenplay category’s preference for smaller work, I think people might reward Two Strangers!)
Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman, Caroline Shaw
August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Steve Bargonetti
The Lost Boys, The Rescues
Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
The online commenters will grouse, but Schmigadoon! has successfully argued that even though it started as a TV show, its score has enough material written for the stage to qualify, and I think the voters will follow suit.
Hildegard Bechtler, Oedipus
Takeshi Kata, Bug
Chloe Lamford, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon
David Rockwell, Fallen Angels
We see big car onstage — and, yes, interesting collision of past and present through decades-spanning set dressing, as well as a dirt plot that keeps reminding you of the grave — we award big car.
dots, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Soutra Gilmour, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Rachel Hauck, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys
Scott Pask, Schmigadoon!
Here’s a place where it feels like voters will reward Lost Boys, because if nothing else, that show has spectacle.
Brenda Abbandandolo, Dog Day Afternoon
Qween Jean, Liberation
Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels
Emilio Sosa, The Balusters
Paul Tazewell, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Let’s double up here: Qween Jean has achieved the rare feat of being nominated twice in her debut season on Broadway, with costumes that blend references in distinct and impressive ways (and imagine how hard it was to source those ’70s Liberation polyesters). I think that may have given her enough name recognition to win in both categories, though the classical Fallen Angels and Ragtime could upset in either category.
Linda Cho, Ragtime
Linda Cho, Schmigadoon!
Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ryan Park, The Lost Boys
David I. Reynoso, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
See above.
Isabella Byrd, Dog Day Afternoon
Natasha Chivers, Oedipus
Stacey Derosier, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Heather Gilbert, Bug
Heather Gilbert, The Fear of 13
Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Looking at this, you’re reminded of how much inky darkness there was onstage this year, though Salesman’s — highlighted, to use the wrong word, in my colleague Sara Holdren’s review — may prove the most distinctively inky.
Kevin Adams, Chess
Jane Cox, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Donald Holder, Schmigadoon!
Adam Honoré, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Adam Honoré and Donald Holder (Lighting Design) and 59 Studio (Projection Design), Ragtime
Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Another craft category that The Lost Boys may get a good bite at, if only because people also know Arden’s name.
Justin Ellington, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Tom Gibbons, Oedipus
Lee Kinney, The Fear of 13
Josh Schmidt, Bug
Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
The crispness of Oedipus, balancing atavistic whispering and dialogue, stands out in my mind, though Salesman may sweep on familiarity and enthusiasm.
Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Kai Harada, Ragtime
Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys
Brian Ronan, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Walter Trarbach, Schmigadoon!
The enveloping thrill of being at the Jellicle Ball seems hard to discount, though perhaps some prefer the sweep of Ragtime.
Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!
Ellenore Scott, Ragtime
Ani Taj, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant, The Lost Boys
Please, let it be The Jellicle Ball — and I think it will, because Wiles and Lyons’s work merges many different traditions legibly and has a distinct unifying wit and delight.
Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon!
Ethan Popp, Kyler England, Adrianne “AG” Gonzalez, and Gabriel Mann; The Lost Boys
Lux Pyramid, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brian Usifer, Chess
Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder, and Doug Schadt; Cats: The Jellicle Ball
When Sir Lloyd Webber lets someone transmogrify his musicals, he gets involved in the orchestrations and gets to put himself up again for the Tony. Here, he seems likely to get another, because his, Wilson, Holder, and Schadt’s revivification of Cats is so memorable.
