As the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran nears its six-month point, the impact of that geopolitical conflict is beginning to become entrenched in global freight pricing increases, spreading from short-term spot rates to long-term contract rates, according to analysis by Xeneta.
“The knock-on effect of almost half a year of disruption caused by war in the Middle East is now spreading into the long-term contract market. Average long-term rates from Far East to US West Coast and US East Coast are up 41% and 40% respectively since the end of February. Long term rates are also up 41% to North Europe and a lesser, but still significant, 17%, into Mediterranean,” Peter Sand, Xeneta’s Chief Analyst, said in a release.
“This is the fire spreading from the short-term market where we have seen massive, triple digit rate increases. The disruption caused by war in the Midde East is becoming a deepset and structural problem that will not go away any time soon, so carriers are in an extremely powerful position to call the shots across both long term and short term markets,” Sand said.
To cope with that new reality, Xeneta advised that shippers must accept that signing a long-term contract means accepting those elevated costs for at least the coming quarter. “Shippers should not go out into a rising market like this and lock themselves into a one-year deal. This is a market for contracts with a shorter tenure, securing space for the coming quarter, but with an adjustment mechanism if/when the short-term market turns,” Sand said.
To illustrate the trend, Xeneta cited statistics comparing how freight prices have changed since the U.S. and Israel began their bombing campaign against Iran on February 28.
Spot rate changes since the end of February (pre-crisis) – 12 August vs 28 February 2026:
- Far East to US West Coast: +271%
- Far East to US East Coast: +287%
- Far East to North Europe: +121%
- Far East to Mediterranean: +76%
- North Europe to US East Coast: +86%
Long term rate changes since the end of February (pre-crisis) – 12 August vs 28 February 2026:
- Far East to US West Coast: +41%
- Far East to US East Coast: +40%
- Far East to North Europe: +41%
- Far East to Mediterranean: +17%
- North Europe to US East Coast: +53%
