As India prepares for the onset of the Southwest Monsoon, a new briefing paper by Climate Trends examines the growing risks posed by a rapidly strengthening El Niño and its implications for rainfall, agriculture, food security, inflation, and the broader economy.The analysis comes as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised the forecast for Monsoon 2026 from 92% to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a 60% probability of deficient rainfall this season.
Key Highlights:
- IMD forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall at 90% of LPA, placing India on the threshold of a deficient monsoon.
- NOAA projects an 82% probability of El Niño developing by May–July and a 96% probability of it persisting through winter 2026–27. Climate models indicate a significant possibility of a strong to very strong El Niño, comparable to past Super El Niño events.
- Since 1950, the world has seen four Super El Niño events- 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98 and 2015-16. The highest temperature anomaly was at +2.5°C in 1982-83.
- Around 60% of historical El Niño years have resulted in deficient or below-normal monsoon rainfall in India.
- Experts warn that rainfall distribution, not just seasonal totals, could become highly erratic, with longer dry spells and break-monsoon conditions.
- Nearly 52% of India’s cultivated area remains rain-fed, making agriculture highly vulnerable to rainfall deficits and delayed monsoon progress.
- A weak monsoon could reduce groundwater recharge, lower reservoir levels, strain irrigation systems, and heighten urban water stress.
- The risks are compounded by ongoing geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and concerns over fertilizer availability and costs.
- Experts caution that 2026 could rank among the warmest years on record, with 2027 potentially becoming even warmer as El Niño amplifies global temperatures.
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could provide some support to the monsoon, though its ability to offset a strong El Niño remains uncertain.
2026 began under the shadow of an evolving El Niño, that too a strong one. With this, the state-run India Meteorological Department predicted below normal rainfall to the tune of 90% (with an error margin of +/-4%) of the Long Period Average of 870 mm for the upcoming Southwest Monsoon season. India stands at the border of deficient rainfall and below normal rainfall. According to the probability forecast by IMD, 60% probability for deficient rainfall, while 24% probability for below normal rainfall.
2026 has been an exceptional year so far, as this year will see all forms of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is rare. The year began with weak La Niña conditions; presently, the country is in ENSO neutral phase, to be followed by quick transition into El Niño conditions by the second half of the year.
By the time Monsoon makes an onset over the Indian mainland, El Niño would be in an evolving phase and ENSO neutral conditions will prevail. Mere presence of El Nino is enough to be worrying about the weakening Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall.
El Niño is a very complex phenomenon and is quite famous for its notorious behaviour. It affects large parts of the world but not in a similar manner every time and everywhere. Particularly for sub-tropical regions that bear the maximum impact of this phenomenon, invariably linked with less rainfall. El Niño disrupts the regular Walker Circulation, creating high-pressure conditions over the Indian subcontinent. The Walker Circulation is a massive, east-west loop of air flowing across the tropical Pacific Ocean. This suppresses the upward movement of moist air, which invariably leads to a deficiency in the southwest monsoon rains.
Experts also believe that the evolving El Niño is as dangerous as the established El Niño itself. This means that the brewing phase of El Nino has the potential to have an impact on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall also. Anything that is not in a stable state creates turbulence, and the monsoon is known for a stable airmass. Evolving conditions will lead to unstable weather conditions, interrupting the monsoon rainfall, leading to more uncertainty.
With the rapid rise in the Niño indices, the impact will start showing in the onset month of June itself. IMD has already predicted below normal rain to the tune of < 92% of LPA of 166.9 mm for the country.
At present, the trend shows that there will be a quick transition from ENSO neutral conditions into El Nino. According to the latest advisory by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemispheric winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026 – February 2027).
The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy
