Last year at this time, I wrote how the peak season we were about to experience would be much different from the norm. I noted that while things had normalized somewhat following the pandemic years, 2025 would be heavily impacted by geopolitical strife and the U.S. government’s whipsaw economic policies. To get out ahead of the tariffs the new president had threatened to impose, retailers had front-loaded so much inventory that we would not see the summer spike in imports that we’d expect to see in a traditional peak season.
Once those tariffs took effect, supply chains grappled with their haphazard implementation as the administration rewarded or punished trading-partner nations. All of this made it difficult for supply chain leaders to engage in any sort of long-term planning.
2025 actually saw a split peak season, with a surge in demand for maritime and port capacity in the first part of the year and heightened demand for DC and the truck capacity in the second half, as importers scrambled to move merchandise from overstuffed warehouses to stores for the selling season. And consumers were ready to buy, putting aside economic worries to have the kinds of holidays they enjoyed during the flush years of pandemic stimulus checks.
As we begin peak season of 2026, the turmoil supply chains experienced last year still continues, with new concerns added. Of course, this year, the biggest supply chain disruptor of them all will be the war against Iran. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has sent fuel prices soaring. And as I write this, another bottleneck has formed as Houthi rebels resumed attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Along with continued trade uncertainty, tightening capacity, and price increases, nearly everything related to transportation is expected to be much costlier this peak season.
Last year, suppliers absorbed some of the increased costs brought on by the tariffs. That won’t happen this year, as the unrelenting cost pressures are forcing them to pass those increases down to customers to shore up their bottom lines. Inflation is up, and nearly everything is more expensive for consumers. Recent reports show people are buying less at the grocery store and are much more selective about other purchases.
That leads me to believe that the current administration’s policies are finally making an impact. This time around, we might not experience the big consumer holidays of recent years.
