Retail sales grew in March as nervous consumers made purchases ahead of the impact of rising tariffs, according to an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
One sign of that consumer concern is that 46% of shoppers in a survey conducted for NRF in March were stocking up on appliances, clothing, and other items because they were worried that tariffs would bring higher prices.
Federal figures from the Census Bureau showed that overall retail sales in March were up 1.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 4.6% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.2% month over month and 3.5% year over year in February.
However, the Census results reflect consumer spending that came after President Donald Trump announced tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico in February but before he announced a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S trading partners on April 2 along with sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries. Those reciprocal tariffs were subsequently suspended for 90 days, but other tariff announcements have followed, and the situation remains fluid.
March’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.6% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.4% unadjusted year over year. Core sales were up 2.6% year over year on a three-month moving average.
The results come as NRF is forecasting that core retail sales will grow between 2.7% and 3.7% in 2025 compared with 2024.
“Retail sales strengthened in March, supported by continued solid growth in income, lower energy costs and bigger-than-usual tax refunds that all helped support household budgets,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “However, there is no question that the consumer is not feeling great given the confusion of policy announcements from Washington. On-again, off-again rising tariffs and resulting turmoil in the stock market and world economy are clearly impacting consumer concerns about higher prices and future consumer spending growth.”
