Amid whiplash tariff and market index swings, shoppers are cutting spending in many sectors, but a new study shows that trend does not apply to the global grocery industry. Data from more than 64 million households and 627 million grocery transactions in the U.S., Europe, and Asia shows that shoppers are holding steady or even increasing grocery spending, according to California-based enterprise software vendor SymphonyAI.
That conclusion shows that consumers under economic stress may cut back on discretionary spending like dining out and traveling, but they often find refuge in the comfort of grocery visits and enjoying meals at home, much as they did during the Covid pandemic, the study found.
The results come from SymphonyAI’s Grocery Sentiment Index (GSI), which reveals how shoppers’ future spending demonstrably differs from their stated intentions. The study applied analytical and predictive AI models to gain insights from customers’ loyalty card data on grocery transactions made from January 2022 through March 2025.
“Grocers should feel good about the outlook for second-quarter shopper behavior,” Josh McCann, head of HQ client delivery and analytics for SymphonyAI’s retail-CPG division, said in a release. “Looking ahead, the GSI utilizes more than 200 weighted behavior metrics to predict improving trends for Europe and Asia, as shoppers move from Poor to Neutral sentiment zones, while the U.S. shoppers move toward the top end of the Neutral zone. It’s an opportunity for grocers in all three geographies to deploy aggressive, targeted strategies to engage shoppers through their most relevant behavioral needs – and drive powerful bottom-line impact.”
