Amid the impact from tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty, year-over-year declines in import cargo volume seen at the nation’s major container ports in recent months are expected to continue in 2026, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
After a tumultuous 2025, that trade policy uncertainty seems likely to continue into 2026. According to the report, the Trump Administration has recently reduced tariffs on some food products, but the future of other tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) rests with a challenge currently being considered by the Supreme Court. Even if the tariffs are struck down, the administration is likely to seek to reinstate them under other trade authorities.
“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in a release. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”
Imports are also slumping because many U.S. importers rushed their orders earlier than usual to avoid the financial impact of tariffs, which are import taxes on American companies.
“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Regardless of what develops, retailers will adjust their supply chains accordingly and strive to ensure that consumers have affordable options when they shop.”
By the numbers for October, U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.07 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), although the Port of Charleston has not yet reported its data. That figure was down 1.8% from September and down 7.9% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for November, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.6% year over year. December is forecast at 1.86 million TEU, down 12.7%. Following July’s peak of 2.39 million TEU, November and December would be the slowest months of the year. And December would be the slowest month since 1.83 million TEU in June 2023.
November and December are traditionally slow, but the large year-over-year declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes. In addition, many retailers imported cargo earlier than usual this year to avoid tariffs. That explains why the first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. The full year is forecast at 25.2 million TEU, down 1.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
