Retail sales during 2025 will grow between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024 levels to reach between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion, likely coming in below the 2024 growth rate of 3.6%, according to a forecast from The National Retail Federation (NRF).
Specifically, the 2025 sales forecast compares with 3.6% annual sales growth of $5.29 trillion dollars in 2024. This year’s forecast is in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6%.
“Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025 — bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains — however, significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Still, serving customers will remain retailers’ top priority no matter what the economic environment.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 7% and 9% year over year to a total of between $1.57 trillion to $1.6 trillion. By comparison, non-store and online sales grew 8.1% to a total of $1.47 trillion last year. NRF expects GDP growth to decline just below 2% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024 and below the trend of the past few years.
“Any way you look at it, a lot is riding on the consumer,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “While we do expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slower but steady income growth, and solid household finances. Consumer spending is not unraveling.”
Kleinhenz added that even though consumer confidence is declining, due largely to lingering inflation and consumers’ anxiety over tariffs, that doesn’t mean there will be an immediate drop in consumer spending. “It’s the hard data on employment, income and tariff-induced inflation — not consumer sentiment — that supports our view of a slower trajectory for consumer spending,” he said.
