Freight markets are turning a corner, although at different speeds for brokers and carriers, according to recent data from freight-matching and transportation tech firm Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence (BI), released this week.
The companies’ H1 Freight Broker and Q2 Carrier survey data found that brokers are reporting sharp rate gains and tightening capacity while carriers describe a softer, more uncertain market and mounting financial strain.
Despite the challenges, both groups say conditions are improving.
“The freight cycle is gaining momentum, and both brokers and carriers are feeling it,” Joe Pergola, chief financial officer at Truckstop.com, said in a statement announcing the surveys’ findings. “For the first time, more survey respondents on both sides reported increases in rates, revenue, and volume than reported declines or flat conditions. That shift gives brokers and carriers a reason to plan for growth rather than just weather the cycle.”
Truckstop.com and BI surveyed 644 owner-operators and small fleets for the report. Among the findings:
Brokers reported sharp rate gains and tightening capacity. More than 80% of brokers said spot rates rose year-over-year in the first half of 2026, and more than a third of those seeing gains reported increases of 25% or more. Contract rates were up for 55% of brokers, and 63% reported higher revenue. Margins told a more mixed near-term story, with 43% saying margins were lower than in the second half of 2025. However, brokers were bullish, with 63% expecting margins to increase over the next six months and 74% expecting demand to rise.
Capacity is tightening in step with rates: 72% of brokers expect capacity to tighten over the next three to six months, compared with just 14% who expect it to loosen, and 86% said it’s already more challenging to find capacity than before.
And as capacity tightens, having trucks under your own control turns into a major competitive edge. Nearly 70% said brokers with their own trailer fleets have an advantage over those who don’t. Asset ownership becomes a differentiator as the market shifts.
Carriers see more loads but are less certain about market direction. Carrier volumes picked up in Q2, with half reporting more loads than the same period last year—up from 27% in Q1 and 17% in Q4 2025. Rates followed: 49% reported revenue per mile above last year’s levels, and revenue was up for 46%, nearly double the 26% who reported gains in Q1.
Whether conditions feel softer than Q1 split carriers almost exactly in half—51% said no on demand, 50% said no on rates. That near-even divide comes despite two quarters of measurable improvement in volumes, rates, and revenue year-over-year.
Looking ahead, nearly two-thirds (66%) said they expect demand to be up over the next three to six months, and 53% said they expect rates to follow. Equipment plans, though, haven’t moved with that outlook: 52% are not planning to buy or replace tractors. The most common reason wasn’t weak demand—26% said equipment simply wasn’t needed yet, with costs close behind at 24%.
On the broader economy, carriers are skeptical. More than half said they believe the U.S. is either already in a recession (29%) or heading into one (28%), nearly two-thirds think tariffs will hurt trucking, and 61% said they expect prices to rise over the next six months.
Broker liability ruling and regulation reshape the market. The Supreme Court’s ruling on broker liability is registering across the industry. When asked about its biggest expected impact, brokers pointed most often to higher freight rates—cited by nearly half (49%). Another 18% said they expect the ruling to push investment in carrier vetting tools, and 10% said they anticipate market consolidation among brokers.
Regulation also shapes carrier behavior. More than 80% of carriers said enforcement of English-language proficiency requirements will have some or a significant impact on the industry. Carriers were split on whether the trucking capacity leaving the market due to federal actions would return (35% yes, 24% no, 41% don’t know). The current administration’s impact on trucking was similarly divided, with 48% calling it good for trucking, 24% calling it bad, and 28% remaining unsure.
When asked more broadly about the future of the industry, 83% of brokers said they expect more brokers to go out of business in the coming months. Poor management was the leading reason cited (48%), ahead of low rates (24%) and being undercapitalized (11%).
Cash flow remains a pressure point for carriers. Financial fragility was one of the survey’s starkest findings. Almost half (44%) of carriers said they could operate for less than 30 days if invoice payments stopped today, and 79% already rely on factoring [in which they sell unpaid invoices to an outside company] to get paid faster. Payment timelines play a factor on the broker side too, as 48% of brokers say shippers take three to four weeks to pay invoices, and another 30% take a month or more—a squeeze that flows straight downstream to carriers.
Fuel prices and insurance costs ranked as carriers’ top operational challenges, ranking well above truck parking and detention time. And job satisfaction remains high on both sides of the market, with 77% of brokers and 74% of carriers reporting satisfaction with their work, even as economic sentiment remains mixed.
