Freight carriers in trucking, ocean, and air modes face a growing chance of being hit with falling rates and volumes as new Trump Administration tariffs on all U.S. trading partners are forecasted to dramatically reduce import cargo at America’s major container ports beginning next month, reports say.
The steep drop in freight demand would follow the recent short burst of orders by shippers hustling to move cargo before the tariffs take effect, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Tariffs are taxes on U.S importers ultimately paid by consumers. They are creating anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and families alike with the speed at which they are being implemented and stacked upon each other. At this point, retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.”
As a result, imports during the second half of 2025 are now expected to be down at least 20% year over year, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. Even balanced against elevated levels earlier this year, that could bring total 2025 cargo volume to a net decline of 15% or more unless the situation changes.
A similar forecast for stormy weather in freight markets came from Freightos, which noted that China has already retaliated against the latest White House tariffs with new tariffs of its own on U.S. exports, as has Canada, with the EU considering additional measures. Together, those variables will all negatively impact U.S. exports, and thus reduce freight hauling requirements to move those goods.
Of course, transportation service providers are seeking solutions to those difficult business conditions, but their task is made more difficult because of the swift changes in policy stances coming from the White House.
According to Freightos, in addition to roiling markets and increasing the likelihood of recession, the tariff plan is also leading to significant uncertainty and confusion for supply chains in terms of understanding the moves as protectionist or aimed at removing foreign trade barriers, as long-term or temporary. In the words of Judah Levine, Freightos’ head of research: “The tariff playbook has gone from chess to dodgeball—and supply chains are ducking fast.”
Likewise, Moody’s Ratings today released a report forecasting that reduced trade flows will hurt local governments that derive substantial economic activity from warehousing and logistics linked to border crossing points or to maritime ports. More broadly, recent U.S. tariff hikes are expected to negatively impact state and local governments by undermining trade-linked industries, eroding government purchasing power, and slowing economic growth.
In Moody’s Ratings’ view, that’s because the relocation of manufacturing to the U.S., a key goal of Trump’s tariff policy, is unlikely to occur at a scale sufficient to offset the broader adverse economic and revenue effects of prolonged tariff increases and trade restrictions.
“With U.S. tariffs affecting all countries, there are no real safe havens for companies considering relocating their supply chains. Currently, there is great near-term and (likely) medium-term uncertainty about specific tariffs and major sourcing decisions are unlikely to be made in the current fog,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Supply Chain Industry Practice Lead at Moody’s, a sister group which is not affiliated with the rating agency, said. “With sourcing decisions on hold and tariffs arriving as mandatory taxes on supply chains, there is very little supply chain professionals can do about costs. Supply Chain can, however, continue playing a crucial role in reliability and resilience.”
